000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110259 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Howard is centered near 24.1N 122.3W at 11/0300 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently near 13 ft. No deep convection is present, however as noted sustained winds remain gale-force and a gale warning is in effect now that the system is post-tropical. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale-force Thu morning. The system is forecast to dissipate by Sat morning. Please read the final NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. For additional information please refer to the High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: Satellite-derived wind data from earlier this afternoon indicate that a broad 1011 mb area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico near 12.5N103W has an elongated circulation without a well-defined center. However, the low continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 100W and 113W. Associated winds are currently 20 kt or less and seas are less than 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph, well offshore the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 88W north of 02N to across the Gulf of Fonseca and Nicaragua and into the far NW Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 103W north of 01N to southwestern Mexico, moving west at around 10 kt. This feature is described in detail in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N79W to 08N90W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12.5N103W to 11N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 77W and 79W, from 03N to 08N between 83W and 96W, and from 08N to 14N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on a broad trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are Offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found west of Baja California Norte. Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted elsewhere with seas of 4-6 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the broad trough of low pressure, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area through early Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except 4-6 ft offshore Ecuador and in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the next several days, pulsing to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through Thu night, and increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Ecuador Sun into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Howard, and on a broad area of low pressure several hundred nautical miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough, except 3-5 ft seas north of 23N and west of 129W. to near 25N, and west of 125W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough and west of 100W, and gentle to moderate east of 100W. Seas are 4-7 ft south of the monsoon trough, locally to around 8 ft along 03.4S between 100W and 120W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except moderate to locally fresh south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail. $$ Lewitsky