864 AXPZ20 KNHC 101447 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Aug 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 23.7N 120.2W at 10/1500 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently near 18 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 22N to 26N between 118W and 121W. Howard is forecast to become post- tropical early Thu, dissipating by early Sat. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico have slowly become more organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 85W north of 03N to across Costa Rica and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 100W north of 01N, moving west at around 20 kt. Low pressure is expected to form along this wave, and there is the potential for this area of low pressure to develop into a tropical cyclone. Please see above for more information. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N103W to 12N123W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N east of 86W, from 08N to 17N between 91W and 106W, and from 07N to 13N between 110W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on a broad trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. Tropical Storm Howard west of the outer Baja California offshore waters boundary continues to move away from the area while weakening. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are Offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the Gulf of California with seas of 1-3 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, aside from the broad trough of low pressure, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area through early Thu. A surge of fresh to strong winds may occur in the Gulf of California at night through Thu night along with nocturnal convection. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft southwest of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the next several days, pulsing to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Howard. Outside of Howard, a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4-7 ft dominate the waters north of the monsoon trough, except 3-5 ft north of 26N and west of 126W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft dominate the waters south of the monsoon trough, except around 8 ft along and just north of 03.4S between 100W and 120W. For the forecast, seas of 3-5 ft will prevail north of 26N and west of 126W through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the week and into the weekend, except moderate to locally fresh south of the monsoon trough. Seas of around 8 ft will prevail near 03.4S, decaying by the end of the week into the weekend. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail elsewhere. $$ AL