000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100242 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 23.1N 118.4W at 10/0300 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently near 24 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Howard is forecast to continue weakening, becoming post-tropical Thu, and dissipating Fri night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 83W north of 03N to across the border of Panama and Costa Rica and into the western Caribbean Sea, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 87W. A tropical wave has its axis near 96W north of 06N, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave that was along 139W several hours ago has moved west of 140W and into the Central Pacific basin. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N105W to 12N125W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 96W and 115W, and from 08N to 14N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Howard. Aside from Howard, gentle to moderate winds are occurring offshore Baja California where seas are 4-7 ft. Gentle to moderate mainly southerly winds are in the Gulf of California, except in the far northern Gulf where a surge of NW-N 20 to 30 kt winds is noted. Seas are 3 ft or less north of the entrance to the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending SW-W to near 13.5N100W, where seas are 5-7 ft ft. Mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail elsewhere outside of Howard. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Howard, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area through early Thu. A surge of fresh to strong winds may occur in the Gulf of California tonight and again Thu night along with nocturnal convection. A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing a disorganized area of showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft southwest of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the next several days, pulsing to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Howard. Outside of Howard, a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4-7 ft dominate the waters north of the monsoon trough, except 3-5 ft north of 26N and west of 126W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft dominate the waters south of the monsoon trough, except around 8 ft along and just north of 03.4S between 100W and 120W. For the forecast, seas of 3-5 ft will prevail north of 26N and west of 126W through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the week and into the weekend, except moderate to locally fresh south of the monsoon trough. Seas of around 8 ft will prevail near 03.4S, decaying by the end of the week into the weekend. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail elsewhere. $$ Lewitsky