444 AXPZ20 KNHC 092047 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Howard is centered near 22.5N 117.7W at 09/2100 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are currently near 26 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm NE semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 21N to 24N between 115W and 119W. Howard has started to weaken, and is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm tonight. The system will continue on a WNW track while steadily weakening the next couple of days. Howard is forecast to become a post tropical remnant low on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 80W just offshore Colombia extending northward across eastern Panama and into the western Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 94W/95W north of 02N, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 139W from 02N to 17N, moving west at around 20 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N104W to 13N116W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N east of 86W, from 07N to 15N between 92W and 105W, from 06N to 10N between 105W and 111W, and from 09N to 14N between 118W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Howard. Aside from Hurricane Howard, gentle to moderate winds are occurring offshore Baja California where seas are 4-7 ft. Light to gentle mainly southerly winds are in the Gulf of California, with seas of 3 ft or less north of the entrance. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 5-7 ft ft. Mainly light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere outside of Howard. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Howard, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area through early Thu. A surge of fresh to strong winds may occur in the Gulf of California tonight and again Thu night along with nocturnal convection. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is currently located several hundred nautical miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while it moves west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the next several days, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Howard. Outside of Hurricane Howard, a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5-7 ft, reaching 8 ft near 16N140W, are noted north of the monsoon trough to near 25N and west of 125W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are north of 25N and west of 129W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft will prevail north of 25N and west of 129W through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the week, becoming moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough and west of 115W by the start of the weekend. Seas in the west-central waters in east swell will decay to less than 8 ft early Wed. Seas of around 8 ft will prevail near 03.4S, decaying by the end of the week into the weekend. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail elsewhere. $$ AL