000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090852 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Howard is centered near 21.6N 116.1W at 09/0900 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are currently around 24 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Weakening is expected to begin later today and continue during the next couple of days. Howard is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm tonight, and become post-tropical on Wed night or early Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 78W just offshore Colombia extending northward across eastern Panama and into the western Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the coasts of Colombia and eastern Panama. A tropical wave has its axis near 94W north of 02N to across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southern Mexico, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 137W from 02N to 17N, moving west at around 20 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 10N94W to 09N100W to 14N109W. It resumes southwest of Hurricane Howard from 15N118W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 94W and 112W, from 10N to 12N between 116W and 122W, and from 10N to 15N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Howard. Aside from Hurricane Howard, gentle to moderate winds are occurring offshore Baja California where seas are 4-7 ft. Light to gentle mainly southerly winds are in the Gulf of California, with seas of 3 ft or less north of the entrance. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 5-7 ft ft. Mainly light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere outside of Howard. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Howard, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area through early Thu. A surge of fresh to strong winds may occur in the Gulf of California tonight and again Thu night along with nocturnal convection. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is currently located several hundred nautical miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while it moves west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the next several days, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Howard. Outside of Hurricane Howard, a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough to near 27N and west of 130W, except fresh to strong from 14N to 20N west of 135W with seas in the 8-11 ft range per recent altimeter data. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are north of 27N and west of 126W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft will prevail north of 25N and west of 128W through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the week, becoming moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough and west of 115W by the start of the weekend. Seas of 8-11 ft in the west-central waters in east swell will decay to less than 8 ft early Wed. Seas of around 8 ft will reach and breach 03.4S to the north this afternoon, decaying by the end of the week into the weekend. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail elsewhere and otherwise. $$ Lewitsky