000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090238
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Howard is centered near 21.2N 115.2W at 09/0300 UTC
moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.
Peak seas are currently around 20 ft. Numerous moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted within 45 nm of the center 
with scattered moderate to strong elsewhere within 75 nm in the 
east semicircle and 60 nm in the west semicircle. Little change 
in strength is expected overnight, but weakening is forecast to 
begin on Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 93W north of 02N to across
southeast Mexico just east of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving 
west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 135W from 02N to 17N, moving 
west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N100W to 14N108W. It
resumes southwest of Hurricane Howard from 16N116W to 12N130W to 
11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 15N between 90W and 110W, and from 10N and 15N
between 125W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Howard.

Aside from Hurricane Howard, gentle to moderate winds are 
occurring offshore of Baja California Norte where seas are 5-7 
ft. Light to gentle mainly southerly winds are in the Gulf of 
California, with seas of 3 ft or less north of the entrance. 
Fresh to strong N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where 
seas are 5-7 ft ft. Mainly light to gentle winds, and seas of 
4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere outside of Howard. 

For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Howard, fresh to 
strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area through early
Thu. A surge of fresh to strong winds may occur in the Gulf of
California Tue night and again Thu night along with nocturnal
conveciton. An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few
hundred nautical miles south of southwestern Mexico in a couple 
of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
late this week while it moves west-northwestward, well offshore 
of the coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 5
days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to locally strong winds are in the Papagayo region and 
offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas
are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft south of the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, pulsing
to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on 
Hurricane Howard.

Outside of Hurricane Howard, a broad ridge of high pressure 
dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to 
fresh trades are noted north of the monsoon trough to near 25N 
and west of 130W, where seas are in the 6-9 ft range. Light to 
gentle winds, and seas of 3-45 ft, are north of 25N and west of 
126W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail south of the monsoon trough. 

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated 
with a broad trough of low pressure located more than 1000
nautical miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. 
Environmental conditions have become less conducive, and 
additional development is no longer expected as the disturbance 
moves westward toward the central Pacific basin.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft will 
prevail north of 25N and west of 128W through the early part of 
the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through
the week, becoming moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough
and west of 115W by the start of the weekend. Seas of 7-9 ft in
the west-central waters in east swell will decay by early Wed.
Seas of around 8 ft will reach and breach 03.4S to the north
mid-week, decaying by the end of the week into the weekend. Seas
of 4-7 ft will prevail elsewhere and otherwise.

$$
Lewitsky