000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081506 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 20.1N 113.4W at 08/1500 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 22N between 111W and 117W. Howard is forecast to continue on a NW track over the next day, while reaching hurricane intensity. Afterwards, the system is expected to take a WNW track while starting a weakening trend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 90W north of 03N, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 132W from 03N to 17N, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N97W to 11N106W. It resumes southwest of Tropical Storm Howard from 13N116W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 82W and 96W, from 06N to 13N between 98W and 106W, and from 08N to 16N between 128W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details Tropical Storm Howard. Aside from TS Howard, moderate winds are occurring well offshore of Baja California Norte where seas are around 6 ft. Gentle SE winds are in the central and northern Gulf of California. Fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere outside of Howard. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the waters, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Howard, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area through early Thu. An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred nautical miles south of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some development of this system is possible later this week while it moves west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through Tue, then pulsing to moderate to fresh through Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Howard. A broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Trades are moderate to fresh north of the monsoon trough to 26N and west of 125W between the ridging and a passing tropical wave, with N-NE moderate winds north of 26N between 118W and 125W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough and west of 110W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 26N and west of 126W and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere outside of Tropical Storm Howard, except reaching 8 ft in the west-central waters. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a broad trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur during the next couple of days. This system is expected to move generally westward into the central Pacific basin by the middle to latter portion of this week, where environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for additional development. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 26N and west of 126W through the early part of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will prevail north of 26N and west of 125W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will dominate the remainder of the open waters, building to 7 to 9 ft over the west-central waters through mid-week with a fresh and elongated fetch of trades. Seas may also build to around 8 ft near 03.4S early in the week in a southerly swell. $$ AL