000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080837 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 19.2N 112.6W at 08/0900 UTC moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 16 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the north semicircle and 60 nm in the south semicircle. Slight additional strengthening is forecast during the next day, followed by weakening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 86W north of 03N to across Costa Rica and Nicaragua into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 86W and 94W. A tropical wave has its axis along 131W from 03N to 17N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 126W and 131W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 08N97W to 13N102W, then extends from southwest of Tropical Storm Howard from 13N115W to 13N131W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 97W and 102W, and from 08.5N to 14.5N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details Tropical Storm Howard. Moderate winds are occurring well offshore of Baja California Norte where seas are around 6 ft. Moderate SE winds are in the central and northern Gulf of California. Fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as noted by a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere outside of Howard. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the waters, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Howard, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area through early Thu. An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred nautical miles south of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some development of this system is possible later this week while it moves west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered thunderstorms are offshore from the Gulf of Papagayo northward to El Salvador, as well as along the coast and just offshore of Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through Tue, then pulsing to moderate to fresh through Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Howard. A broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Trades are moderate to fresh north of the monsoon trough to 26N and west of 125W between the ridging and a passing tropical wave, with N-NE moderate to fresh winds north of 26N between 118W and 125W. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough and west of 110W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 26N and west of 126W, as well as from 04N to 11N between 90W and 110W, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere outside of Tropical Storm Howard, except to 8 ft in the west-central waters. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a broad trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible through the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward into the central Pacific basin. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 26N and west of 126W through the early part of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will prevail north of 26N and west of 125W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will dominate the remainder of the open waters, building to 7 to 9 ft over the west-central waters through mid-week with a fresh and elongated fetch of trades. Seas may also build to around 8 ft near 03.4S early in the week in a southerly swell. $$ Lewitsky