000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080236 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 18.4N 111.7W at 08/0300 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas near and north of the center range from 12 to 15 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the north semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted between 60 nm and 240 nm in the southeast quadrant. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by weakening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 85W north of 03N to across Costa Rica and Nicaragua into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 86W and 93W. A tropical wave has its axis along 130W from 03N to 17N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 126W and 133W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 08N95W to 13N102W, then extends from southwest of Tropical Storm Howard from 12N114W to 11N120W to 13N129W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 94W and 101W, and from 08N to 13N between 134W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 114W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details Tropical Storm Howard. Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring well offshore of Baja California Norte where seas are around 6 ft. Moderate SE winds are in the northern Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas are to 7 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere outside of Howard, locally moderate north of Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the waters, except 3 ft or less in the central and southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Howard, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area through early Thu. Otherwise, and once Howard departs the waters, fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered thunderstorms are offshore from the Gulf of Papagayo northward to El Salvador. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through Tue, then pulsing to moderate to fresh through Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Howard. A broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Trades are moderate to fresh north of the monsoon trough to 26N and west of 125W between the ridging and passing tropical waves, with N-NE moderate to fresh winds north of 26N between 120W and 130W. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough and west of 110W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 26N and west of 125W, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere outside of Tropical Storm Howard, except to 8 ft in the west- central waters. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a broad trough of low pressure located more than 1000 nautical miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible through the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward into the central Pacific basin. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 26N and west of 125W through the early part of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will prevail north of 26N and west of 125W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will dominate the remainder of the open waters, building to 7 to 9 ft over the west-central waters through mid-week with a fresh and elongated fetch of trades. Seas may also build to around 8 ft near 03.4S early in the week in a southerly swell. $$ Lewitsky