000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070845 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nine-E is centered near 16.3N 109.1W at 07/0900 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Maximum seas near the center are near 11 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the northeast quadrant. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 210 nm in the southeast semicircle. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the far eastern tropical Pacific with its axis along 80W north of 04N to across Central Panama and into the western Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 77W and 88W. A tropical wave has its axis along 126W from 04N to 17N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 120W and 130W. A tropical wave has its axis along 138W from 04N to 17N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 130W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N93W to 12N102W, then extends from southwest of Tropical Depression Nine-E from 11N111W to 10N116W to 12N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 94W and 98W, and from 13N to 16N between 90W and 96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details Tropical Depression Nine-E. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends from NW mainland Mexico to across the central and northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte with a surge of short-fused winds near gale force with it and hazardous seas. A trough is along 94W with associated convection flaring up near it as described above. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere away from Tropical Depression Nine-E. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the area, except 3 ft or less north of the entrance to the Gulf of California, and 4 to 6 ft south of 20N and east of 110W. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Tropical Depression Nine-E, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area from through the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California Norte will diminish this afternoon. The surging winds in the central and northern Gulf of California will diminish later this morning, with another surge possible Mon night into early Tue, then again Wed night into early Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are offshore Colombia northward to offshore Costa Rica, as well as offshore El Salvador and Nicaragua. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through the early part of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Nine-E. A broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Trades are moderate to fresh north of the monsoon trough to 24N and west of 125W between the ridging and two passing tropical waves, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough and west of 105W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 24N and west of 125W, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere outside of Nine-E. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 24N and west of 125W through today. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will prevail north of 24N and west of 125W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will dominate the remainder of the open waters, building to 7 to 9 ft over the west-central waters into the early part of the week with a fresh and elongated fetch of trades. Seas may also build to around 8 ft near 03.4S early next week in a southerly swell. An area of low pressure could form several hundred nautical miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands within the next day or two. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward toward the central Pacific basin, with a low chance for tropical cyclone development through 5 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. $$ Lewitsky