000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062102 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nine-E is centered near 15.0N 106.8W at 06/2100 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Maximum seas near the center are near 11 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 100W an 107W. Tropical Depression Nine-E is forecast to move generally west- northwestward to northwestward through early next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave as been re-analyzed this afternoon farther west from its previous position. Its axis is now oriented along 119W from 05N to 17N and is moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 112W and 122W. A tropical wave has its axis along 136W from 05N to 17N, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 130W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 13N104W. The monsoon then continues to the southwest of Tropical Depression Nine-E from 10N114W to 07N140W. Other than the convection described above, scattered moderate is noted within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 122W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 79W and 87W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details Tropical Depression Nine-E. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convectio prevails in the Mexican offshore waters from the southern Gulf of California to west of Cabo Corrientes. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Fresh winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere away from Tropical Depression Nine-E, including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the area, except 3 ft or less north of the entrance to the Gulf of California, and 4 to 6 ft offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Tropical Depression Nine-E, described in the Special Features section above, fresh winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area from through Tue, occasionally strong during the late night and early morning hours. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse from near Punta Eugenia northward through tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds are in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with moderate S to SW winds to the south of the monsoon trough, except locally fresh from the Equator to 04N between 79W and 88W. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are offshore Colombia northward. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Nine-E. A surface trough is noted from 20N139W to 18N137W. Locally fresh winds and seas to near 7 ft area occurring just NW of this feature. Another trough is located from 30N132W to 27N133W. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge dominates the waters north of 24N, with light to gentle variable winds and 4 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades are north of the monsoon trough to 24N and west of 120W where the pressure gradient between the ridging and troughing is tightest. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, except gentle winds between 95W and 100W. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 24N and west of 125W for the start of the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will dominate the open waters, building to 7 to 9 ft over the west-central waters by the end of the weekend into next week with a fresh and elongated fetch of trades. Seas may also build to around 8 ft near 03.4S early next week in a southerly swell. An area of low pressure could form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin or the far eastern portion of the central Pacific basin late this weekend. Environmental conditions could allow for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form when it moves quickly westward over the central Pacific basin during the early to middle part of next week. Further information on this system can be found in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov/?cpac. Development is not expected over the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance of development within the next 5 days. $$ KONARIK