000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060735 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Aug 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated 1007 mb area of low pressure area along a tropical wave located offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico near 12.5N104W continues to gradually become better organized. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 100W and 105W. Current associated winds are 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 11 ft, and a gale warning has been issued with winds increasing to 35 kt expected by this afternoon and evening. If current trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form on today or tonight. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at about 15 kt through early next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service at hurricanes.gov/marine. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis along 104W from 04N to 17N and is described more above. A tropical wave has an axis along 111W from 05N to 17N, just south of the Revillagigedo Islands, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis along 134W from 05N to 17N, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N89W to 1007 mb low pressure near 12.5N104W to 10N110W to 11N118W to 07N140W. Other than the convection described above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 105W and 123W, within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 125W and 140W, and from 10N to 14N between 126W and 131W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 80W and 88W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on low pressure near 12.5N104W that has a high potential to become a tropical cyclone, with a gale warning now in effect. Deep convection has moved from mainland NW Mexico out over the Gulf of California south of 30N to near Cabo Corrientes resulting in hazardous conditions there. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Fresh winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere away from the low pressure described above, including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this area, except 3 ft or less north of the entrance to the Gulf of California, and 5 to 8 ft offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature low described above, fresh winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area from through Tue, occasionally strong during the late night and early morning hours. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse from near Punta Eugenia northward through tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds are in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with gentle moderate S to SW winds to the south of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh from the Equator to 04N between 79W and 88W. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, locally to 7 ft in the area of moderate to fresh winds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are offshore Colombia northward. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region into early next week, as well as offshore Ecuador to 500 nm through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on low pressure near 12.5N104W that has a high potential to become a tropical cyclone, with a gale warning now in effect. A surface trough is noted from 20N139W to 18N137W. Fresh winds and seas to 7 ft area occurring just west of the trough axis. Another trough is located from 30N133W to 27N134W. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge dominates the waters north of 24N, with light to gentle variable winds and 4 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades are north of the monsoon trough to 24N and west of 120W where the pressure gradient between the ridging and troughing is tightest. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, except gentle winds between 95W and 100W. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 24N and west of 125W for the start of the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will dominate the open waters, building to 7 to 9 ft over the west-central waters by the end of the weekend into next week with a fresh and elongated fetch of trades. Seas may also build to around 8 ft near 03.4S early next week in a southerly swell. An area of low pressure could form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin well southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands late this weekend. Environmental conditions could allow for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form when it moves quickly westward over the central Pacific basin during the early to middle part of next week. Additional information on this system can be found in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov/?cpac. Development is not expected over the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance of development within the next 5 days. $$ Lewitsky