000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060123 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Aug 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with a broad 1007 mb low pressure area located offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico near 12.5N103.3W is getting better organized. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 15N97W to 12N97W to 06N110W to 11N112W to 15N102W to 15N97W. Current associated winds are 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 11 ft. If current trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at about 15 kt through early next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis along 102W from 04N to 17N, moving slowly west 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is described above. A tropical wave has an axis along 110W from 05N to 17N, just southeast of the Revillagigedo Islands, moving slowly west at around 5 kt. Associated convection is described above. A tropical wave has its axis along 133W from 05N to 17N, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 13N102W to 10N120W to 07N135W. Other than the convection described above, isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the coast of Panama and Costa Rica, and from 06N to 14N between 115W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on low pressure near 12.5N103.3W that has a high potential to become a tropical cyclone. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere away from the low pressure described above, including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this area, except 3 ft or less north of the entrance to the Gulf of California, and 5 to 7 ft offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature low described above, fresh winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area from Sat through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse from near Punta Eugenia northward through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds are in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with moderate S to SW winds to the south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are offshore Colombia northward to offshore southern Costa Rica. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region into early next week, as well as offshore Ecuador to 500 nm through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on low pressure near 12.5N103.3W that has a high potential to become a tropical cyclone. A surface trough is noted from 20N137W. Fresh winds and seas to 7 ft area occurring just west of the trough axis. Another trough is located from 30N132W to 28N131W. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge dominates the waters north of 24N, with light to gentle variable winds and 4 to 5 ft seas. Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, except gentle winds between 90W and 100W. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 24N and west of 125W into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will dominate the open waters, building to 7 to 9 ft over the west-central waters by the end of the weekend into next week with a fresh and elongated fetch of trades. Seas may also build to around 8 ft near 03.4S early next week in a southerly swell. An area of low pressure could form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin this weekend well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions should allow for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves quickly westward over the central Pacific basin. Development is not expected over the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance of development within the next 5 days. $$ Lewitsky