000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Aug 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Satellite imagery indicates a broad area of low pressure of 1007 mb located offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico, and centered near 13N101W, continues to produce an elongated area of showers and a few thunderstorms. The scattered moderate convection extends from 08N to 14N between 95W and 106W. Current winds nearby are 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend. The system is forecast to move generally west- northwestward at about 15 mph through early next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis along 110W from 05N to 17N, moving slowly west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 106W and 119W. A tropical wave has its axis along 132W from 04N to 17N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 119W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 12N102W to 08N127W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to beyond 09N140W. Other than the convection described above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 78W and 82W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on low pressure near 13N101W that has a high potential to become a tropical cyclone. Moderate NW-N winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere away from the low pressure described above, including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this area, except 3 ft or less north of the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature low described above, fresh winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area from Sat through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse from near Punta Eugenia northward through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds are in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region into early next week, as well as offshore Ecuador to 500 nm Fri night through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on low pressure near 13N101W that has a high potential to become a tropical cyclone. A surface trough is noted from 21N135W to 18N131W. Fresh winds and seas to 7 ft area occurring just west of the trough axis. Another trough is located from 30N134W to 26N135W. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge dominates the waters north of 22N, with light to gentle variable winds and 4 to 5 ft seas. Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 22N and west of 125W into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will dominate the open waters, building to 7 to 9 ft over the west-central waters by the end of the weekend into next week with a fresh and elongated fetch of trades. An area of low pressure could form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin this weekend. Environmental conditions should allow for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves quickly westward over the central Pacific basin. Development is not expected over the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance of development within the next 5 days. $$ KONARIK