000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051539 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad low pressure area of 1007 mb is located offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, near 12N100W, is producing a large area of disorganized shower activity. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 94W and 103W. Current winds nearby are 20 to 25 kt with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into early next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis along 109W from 05N to 17N, moving slowly west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 103W and 115W. A tropical wave has its axis along 131W from 04N to 17N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 119W and 131W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 12N97W to 08N133W. The ITCZ extends from 09N136W to beyond 09N140W. Other than the convection described above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 78W and 82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 115W and 119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on low pressure near 12N100W that has a high potential to become a tropical cyclone. Moderate NW-N winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere away from the low pressure described above, including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this area, except 3 ft or less north of the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature low described above, fresh winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area from Sat through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse from near Punta Eugenia northward through Sat night. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Sat night through Sun afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds are in the Papagayo region. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, mainly moderate winds will prevail, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region through the weekend, as well as offshore Ecuador to 500 nm Fri night into the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on low pressure near 12N100W that has a high potential to become a tropical cyclone. A surface trough is noted from 21N134W to 18N131W. Fresh winds and seas to 7 ft area occurring just west of the trough axis. No significant convection is occurring with this trough. Convection to the north, associated with another trough from 30N134W to 26N136W, has diminished early this morning. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge dominates the waters north of 22N, with light to gentle variable winds and 4 to 5 ft seas. Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Mainly moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with fresh wind between 96W and 107W. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 22N and west of 125W into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will dominate the open waters, building to 7 to 9 ft over the west-central waters by the end of the weekend into next week with a fresh and elongated fetch of trades. An area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Environmental conditions could allow for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward toward and into the central Pacific basin. Development is not expected over the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance of development within the next 5 days. $$ KONARIK