000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050746 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Aug 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has an axis along 97W/98W north of 03N to southern Mexico just west of the Tehuantepec region, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widespread, but disorganized, shower activity accompanies this feature with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 09N to 14N between 93W and 100W. Current nearby winds are 20 to 25 kt with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the weekend and into early next week, remaining well offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 97W/98W is described above. A tropical wave has an axis along 106W from 05N to 17N, moving slowly west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 100W and 111W. A tropical wave has its axis along 128W/129W from 04N to 17N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 119W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 10N90W to 12N97W to 09N106W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N136W to beyond 09N140W. Other than the convection described above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 80W and 83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 114W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on developing low pressure near 11N97W that has a high potential to become a tropical cyclone. Moderate NW-N winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere away from the tropical wave described above, including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this area, except 3 ft or less north of the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature tropical wave/developing low described above, fresh winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area from Sat through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse from near Punta Eugenia northward through Sat night. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Sat night through Sun afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 8 ft offshore Guatemala and El Salvador in the wake of a departing tropical wave described above. For the forecast, mainly moderate winds will prevail, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region through the weekend, as well as offshore Ecuador to 500 nm Fri night into the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on developing low pressure near 11N97W that has a high potential to become a tropical cyclone. The remnant low of post-tropical cyclone Georgette has opened up to a trough in the past few hours from 21N134W to 18N131W. Fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are still occurring just west of the remnant trough. Another trough is analyzed, this one over the NW waters, from 30N134W to 25N135W to 25N140W with isolated to scattered showers near it. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge dominates the waters north of 22N, with light to gentle variable winds and 4 to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, locally fresh to strong between 96W and 107W. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters, except 7 to 9 ft near the area of locally fresh to strong winds. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 22N and west of 125W into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will dominate the open waters, building to 7 to 9 ft over the west-central waters by the end of the weekend into next week with a fresh and elongated fetch of trades. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward toward and into the central Pacific basin. Development is not expected over the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance of development within the next 5 days. $$ Lewitsky