000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050135 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has an axis along 96W from 03N to just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving west at around 10 kt. Widespread, but disorganized, shower activity is occurring with this tropical wave, with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 09N to 14N between 90W and 100W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the weekend and into early next week, remaining well offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 96W is described above. A tropical wave has an axis along 106W from 04N to 17N, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 100W and 110W. A tropical wave has its axis along 127W from 04N to 18N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 116W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 09N100W to 08N126W. The ITCZ extends from 10N136W to beyond 08.5N140W. Other than the convection described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 81W and 87W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on developing low pressure near 11N96W that has potential to become a tropical cyclone. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Mainly gentle winds are noted elsewhere west of 100W, including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 5 ft across this area, except 3 ft or less north of the entrance to the Gulf of California. Fresh to locally strong winds are impacting much of the offshore waters east of 100W along with seas of 6 to 10 ft due to the tropical wave the Special Features section. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature tropical wave/developing low described above, fresh to strong winds over the Tehuantepec area will pulse at night from Sat through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse from near Punta Eugenia northward through Sat night. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California early Sun through Sun afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on developing low pressure near 11N96W that has potential to become a tropical cyclone. Fresh to strong winds are noted across the far outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except moderate to locally fresh in the Papagayo region. Seas are generally 5 to 6 ft. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature described above, mainly moderate winds will prevail, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region through the weekend, as well as offshore Ecuador to 500 nm Fri night into Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on developing low pressure near 11N96W that has potential to become a tropical cyclone. The 1011 mb low of post-tropical cyclone Georgette is noted near 19N131.5W. Fresh winds are noted near the center with seas to 7 ft. The low will become an open trough tonight, and winds and seas will decrease. A weak trough is analyzed over the northwest waters from 30N135W to 26N140W with isolated showers near it. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge dominates the waters north of 20N. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are north of 22N and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, locally fresh to strong between 95W and 110W. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters, except 8 to 10 ft near the area of locally fresh to strong winds. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 24N and west of 130W into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward toward and into the central Pacific basin. Development is not expected over the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance of development within the next 5 days. $$ Lewitsky