000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has an axis along 95W from 05N to the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased this morning in association with this wave, and scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 92W and 95W. Low pressure is expected to form later today or tonight offshore Guatemala and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into early next week, remaining well offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis along 105W and N of 05N, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 99W and 106W. A tropical wave has its axis along 126W from 05N to 18N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 122W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 09N103W to 10N126W, then reforms near 13N133W and continues to 10N138W. The ITCZ extends from 10N138W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 95W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 106W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on developing low pressure near 10N95W that has potential to become a tropical cyclone. Mainly moderate NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are 5-6 ft. Mainly gentle are noted across the Gulf of California with slight seas. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh NE winds are continuing across the region with seas to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are impacting the extreme southeastern portion of the Oaxaca offshore waters with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas near 5 ft. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature tropical wave/developing low described above, fresh to strong winds over the Tehuantepec area will pulse at night from Sat through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on developing low pressure near 10N95W that has potential to become a tropical cyclone. Fresh to strong winds are noted across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to locally moderate mainly SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature described above, mainly moderate winds will prevail. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on developing low pressure near 10N95W that has potential to become a tropical cyclone. The low of post-tropical cyclone Georgette is noted near 19N131W with a central pressure of 1010 mb. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted near the center with seas to 7 ft. The low will become an open trough by tonight and winds and seas will decrease. A surface ridge of 1017 mb, centered near 24N139W, dominates waters W of 130W and N of 20N. Mainly gentle winds and 5-6 ft seas prevail outside of Georgette. Moderate to locally fresh S winds prevail south of 08N E of 125W. Seas are 5-7 ft in this area. For the forecast, gentle winds are expected N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough through tonight. As post-tropical cyclone Georgette becomes an open trough, moderate to fresh winds will return S of 23N Fri and persist through the weekend. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward toward and into the central Pacific basin. Development is not expected over the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance of development within the next 5 days. $$ KONARIK