000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041456 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles off the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico. It has an axis along 90W and N of 04N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 89W and 91W. An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of southern Mexico during the next day or so in association with this feature. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into early next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. The system has a medium chance for tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... See Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave along 90W that has a potential for tropical cyclone formation. A tropical wave has an axis along 104W and N of 05N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 99W and 105W. A tropical wave has its axis along 125W from 05N to 18N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 122W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 09N102W to 10N114W, then resumes near 14N131W to 12N136W. The ITCZ extends from 12N136W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 91W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 105W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave with potential to become a tropical cyclone. Mainly moderate NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are 5-6 ft. Closer to the Baja California coast, locally fresh NW winds are near Punta Eugenia. Light winds to gentle are noted across the Gulf of California with slight seas. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh northerly winds are continuing across the region with seas to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are impacting the extreme southeastern portion of the Oaxaca offshore waters with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas near 5 ft. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature tropical wave/developing low described above, moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the waters west of Baja California will continue to pulse through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Tehuantepec area will pulse at night from Sat through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave with potential to become a tropical cyclone. Fresh to strong winds are noted across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature described above, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across most of the region with moderate to locally fresh winds south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on the current tropical wave with potential to become a tropical cyclone. The low of post-tropical cyclone Georgette is noted near 19N130W with a central pressure of 1009 mb. Winds are 15-20 kt near the center with seas to 7 ft. The low will become an open trough by tonight. A surface ridge dominates waters W of 130W and N of 20N. Mainly light to gentle winds and 5-6 ft seas prevail outside of Georgette. Moderate SE to S winds prevail south of 08N E of 125W. Seas are 5-7 ft in this area. For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough through Thu. As post-tropical cyclone Georgette becomes an open trough, moderate to fresh winds will return S of 23N by tonight and persist through the weekend. Another area of low pressure could form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward toward and into the central Pacific basin early next week. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. $$ KONARIK