170 AXPZ20 KNHC 040355 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave located off the western coast of Central America is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move west and an area of low pressure is expected to form south of southern Mexico within the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. The system is forecast to turn west-northwestward over the weekend into early next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. The system has a medium chance for tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis along 90W and N of 04N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 88W and 91W. A tropical wave has an axis along 102W and N of 05N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 101W and 104W. A tropical wave has its axis along 122W from 05N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N between 121W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 09N102W to 13N125W, then resumes near 13N131W to 12N136W. The ITCZ extends from 12N136W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 88W and 119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave with potential to become a tropical cyclone. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are likely 5-6 ft. Closer to the Baja California coast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds are near and north of Punta Eugenia and south of Cabo San Lazaro. Light winds are noted across the Gulf of California with slight seas. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh northerly winds continue with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas near 5 ft. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature tropical wave/developing low described above, moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the waters west of Baja California will continue to pulse through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period, with seas ranging between 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds over the Tehuantepec area will pulse every evening and night beginning on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds are noted across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. For the forecast, expect gentle to moderate winds across most of the region with moderate to locally fresh winds south of the monsoon trough. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through the next 48 hours. Fresh to strong winds are expected to prevail across the Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua offshore waters in association with the broad low through Thu. Seas will build 8-10 ft with these winds. Conditions will improve by Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on the current tropical wave with potential to become a tropical cyclone. The low of post-tropical cyclone Frank is located near 30N127W with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Winds are 15-20 kt near the center and seas are 8-9 ft near the center, mostly N of 29N between 125W and 129W. The low will continue to move north away from the area tonight, with improving conditions across the northern forecast waters. The low of post-tropical cyclone Georgette is noted near 18N130W with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Winds are 15-20 kt near the center with seas to 8 ft. The low will continue to weaken on Thu and become an open trough by Thu night. Seas will drop below 8 ft tonight. A surface ridge dominates waters W of 130W and N of 20N. Mainly light to gentle winds and 5-6 ft seas prevail outside of Frank and Georgette. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail south of 08N E of 125W. Seas are 5-7 ft in this area. For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough through Thu. As Post-Georgette continues to weaken, moderate to fresh winds will return S of 25N by Thu night and persist into the weekend. Post-Frank low will move N of 30N tonight. Another area of low pressure could form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin later this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend or early next week while it moves westward toward or into the central Pacific basin. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. $$ AReinhart