000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032141 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Aug 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Georgette is centered near 17.5N 129.3W at 03/2100 UTC moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are currently near 9 ft. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the center. The system is forecast to turn northwestward tonight, followed by westward turn on Thursday while weakening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. A tropical wave with axis along 88W is producing a large area of disorganized moderate convection over Central America and the adjacent waters mainly N of 06N and E of 90W. The wave is forecast to move W and an area of low pressure is expected to form south of southern Mexico within the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. The system is forecast to turn west-northwestward over the weekend into early next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. The system has a medium chance for tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 101W and N of 04N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 06N between 92W-104W. A tropical wave has its axis along 120W from 05N to 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 15N between 119W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 12N123W, then resumes near 13N131W to 11N136W. The ITCZ extends from 11N136W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 77W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave with potential to become a tropical cyclone. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are likely 5-6 ft. Closer to the Baja California coast, pulsing moderate to fresh NW winds near and north of Punta Eugenia and south of Cabo San Lazaro are noted. Light winds are noted across the Gulf of California with slight seas. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh northerly winds continue with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas near 6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the central Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature tropical wave/low described above, moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the waters west of Baja California will continue to pulse through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period, with seas ranging between 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong winds over the Tehuantepec area will pulse every evening and night beginning on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 92W with seas to 7 ft. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. For the forecast, expect gentle to moderate winds across most of the region with moderate to locally fresh winds south of the monsoon trough. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through the next 48 hours. Seas will build to 8 ft and subside by Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Papagayo region tonight through Thu with seas building up to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Georgette and the current tropical wave with potential to become a tropical cyclone. The persistent low of post-tropical cyclone Frank is located near 29N127W with a central pressure of 1007 mb. Winds are 20-25 kt near the center and seas are 8-9 ft near the center, mostly N of 28N between 125W and 128W. The low will continue to move north away from the area tonight, with improving conditions across the northern forecast waters. A surface ridge dominates waters W of 130W and N of 20N. Mainly light to gentle winds and 5-6 ft seas prevail outside of Frank and Georgette. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail south of 08N E of 120W. Seas are 5-7 ft in this area. For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough through Thu. As Post-Georgette continues to weaken, moderate to fresh winds will return S of 25N by Thu night and persist into the weekend. Post-Frank low will move N of 30N tonight. $$ ERA