000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Aug 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Georgette is centered near 16.8N 129.2W at 03/1500 UTC moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently near 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 129W and 131W. Georgette is forecast to turn northward with a slight decrease in forward speed today while weakening. A gradual turn toward the west is expected by the end of the week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. A tropical wave with axis along 87W is producing a large area of disorganized moderate convection over Central America and the adjacent waters mainly N of 06N and E of 90W. The wave is forecast to move W and an area of low pressure is expected to form south of southern Mexico within the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. The system is forecast to turn west-northwestward over the weekend into early next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. The system has a medium chance for tropical development within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 100W and N of 04N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 06N between 92W-102W. A tropical wave has its axis along 120W from 05N to 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 16N between 118W and 123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 11N124W, then resumes near 12N133W to 11N138W. The ITCZ extends from 11N138W to beyond 11N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 79W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave with potential to become a tropical cyclone. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are likely 5-6 ft. Closer to the Baja California coast, the latest ASCAT data depicts moderate NW winds near and north of Punta Eugenia and south of Cabo San Lazaro. Light winds are noted across the Gulf of California with slight seas. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong northerly winds continue with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas near 6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the central Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature tropical wave/low described above, moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the waters west of Baja California will pulse through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period, with seas ranging between 5-7 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 91W with seas to 7 ft. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. For the forecast, expect gentle to moderate winds across most of the region with moderate to locally fresh winds south of the monsoon trough today. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region tonight and into Thu morning. This area of low pressure will usher in southerly swell across the Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua offshores tonight. Seas will build to 8-9 ft and subside by Fri morning. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Papagayo region tonight into early Thu with seas building to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Depression Georgette and the tropical wave with potential to become a tropical cyclone. The low of post-tropical cyclone Frank is located near 28N127W with a central pressure of 1006 mb. Winds are 20-25 kt near the center and seas are 8-11 ft near the center, mostly N of 26N between 125W and 130W. The low will move north of the area by tonight with improving conditions across the northern forecast waters. A ridge dominates waters W of 133W and N of 17N. Mainly light to gentle winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail outside of Frank and Georgette. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail south of 08N and west of 120W. Seas are 6-7 ft in this area. For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough through Thu. As Georgette weakens, moderate to fresh winds will return S of 25N by Thu night and persist into the weekend. Frank will move north of 30N Wed night. $$ ERA