000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030949 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Aug 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Georgette is centered near 16.1N 129.5W at 03/0900 UTC moving NNE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently near 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 129W and 130W. A turn northward is expected later today, followed by a turn to the west along with an increase in forward speed on Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, and Georgette is forecast to become a remnant low in the next day or so. Seas will drop below 8 ft tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 84W north of 03N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 10N between 84W and 88W. A tropical wave has its axis along 99W from 04N northward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 98W and 102W. A tropical wave has its axis along 119W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 18N between 118W and 123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W to 08N104W to 11N119W. The ITCZ extends from 13N132W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 79W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge is located between the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are likely 5-6 ft. Closer to the Baja California coast, the latest ASCAT pass shows moderate NW winds near and north of Punta Eugenia and south of Cabo San Lazaro. Light winds are noted across the Gulf of California with slight seas. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong northerly winds continue with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas near 6 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the central Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the waters west of Baja California will persist through Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to end by this morning. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Central America and the adjacent waters. The wave is expected to move into the eastern Pacific basin later today, and an area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico later this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while moving west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This system has a low chance of developing in 48 hours and a high chance through the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 91W with seas to 7 ft. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. For the forecast, expect gentle to moderate winds across most of the region with moderate to locally fresh winds south of the monsoon trough today. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south- southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late tonight and into Thu morning. This area of low pressure will usher in southerly swell across the Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua offshores tonight. Seas will build to 8-9 ft and subside by Fri morning. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Papagayo region tonight into early Thu with seas building to near 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Depression Georgette. The low of post-tropical cyclone Frank is located near 27N127W with a central pressure of 1006 mb. Winds are 20-25 kt near the center and seas are 8-11 ft near the center, mostly N of 26N between 125W and 130W. The low will move north of the area by tonight with improving conditions across the northern forecast waters. A ridge dominates waters west of 133W and north of 17N. Mainly light to gentle winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail outside of Frank and Georgette. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail south of 08N and west of 120W. Seas are 6-7 ft in this area. For the forecast, mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough through Thu. As Georgette weakens, moderate to fresh winds will return S of 25N by Thu night and persist into the weekend. Frank will move north of 30N Wed night. An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula later this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible by this weekend while it moves westward over the open waters of the eastern Pacific basin. This could bring increasing winds and seas to waters east of 110W by Sat. This system has a low chance of developing in the next 48 hour and the next 5 days. $$ AReinhart