000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030401 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Post-Tropical Cyclone Frank is centered near 26N126W with a central pressure of 1005 mb. Winds are currently 30-35 kt with seas peaking near 13 ft. Isolated weak to moderate convection extends outward 120 nm in the E semicircle. Winds will drop below gale force within the next few hours as the system continues to weaken. The center of Frank will move N of 31N by Wed night. Seas will drop below 12 ft tonight and drop below 8 ft by Wed evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. Tropical Depression Georgette is centered near 15.3N 130.0W at 03/0300 UTC and moving NNE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends 120 nm in the W semicircle and 90 nm E semicircle. Peak seas are currently 11 ft. A NNE to N motion is expected through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west along with an increase in forward speed on Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or two, and Georgette could become a remnant low within the next couple of days. Seas will drop below 8 ft by Wed night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 83W north of 03N, moving west around 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 11N between 81W and 87W. A tropical wave has its axis along 97W from 04N northward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 95W and 103W. A tropical wave has its axis along 119W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 117W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to 09N98W to 12N119W. The ITCZ extends from 12N133W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 104W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge is located between the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are likely 5-6 ft. Closer to the Baja California coast, winds are likely gentle to locally moderate. Light winds are noted across the Gulf of California with slight seas. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, ASCAT data from around 02/1600 UTC show fresh to strong northerly winds and is still ongoing this evening. Seas there are likely near 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas near 6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will return to the waters west of Baja California late tonight and persist through Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Central America and the adjacent waters. The wave is expected to move over the eastern Pacific waters on Wednesday, and an area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend and move west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This system has a low chance of developing in 48 hours and a high chance through the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 91W with seas 5-7 ft. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will remain across most of the region while moderate to locally fresh winds south of the monsoon trough. This will continue through the end of the week as broad low pressure forms to the south- southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region by Thu. This area of low pressure will usher in southerly swell across the Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua offshores. Seas will build to 8-9 ft and will subside by Fri morning. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Papagayo region tonight into early Wed with seas building to near 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Post Tropical Cyclone Frank and on Tropical Depression Georgette. A ridge dominates waters west of 133W and north of 17N. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail outside of Frank and Georgette. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail south of 08N and west of 122W. Seas are 6-7 ft in this area. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Frank will move north of 30N Wed night. Georgette should gradually weaken over the next couple days. An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula later this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible by the end of this week while it moves westward over the open waters of the eastern Pacific basin. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This could bring increasing winds and seas to waters east of 110W and north of 07N by Sat. This system has a low chance of developing in the next 48 hour and the next 5 days. $$ AReinhart