000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Frank is centered near 25.7N 125.9W at 02/2100 UTC and moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently 14 ft. Isolated weak to moderate convection extends outward 120 nm in the E semicircle. A gradual turn toward the north is expected over the next couple of days, and Frank should exit the TAFB forecast area by late Wed night or early Thu morning. Gradual weakening is expected through Thu. Seas will drop below 12 ft by early Wed. Tropical Depression Georgette is centered near 14.7N 130.3W at 02/2100 UTC moving NE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 11 ft. Scattered moderate convection extends outward up to 120 nm from the center in the W semicircle and 90 nm E semicircle. A NNE to N motion is expected through Wed, followed by a turn to the west along with an increase in forward speed Thu. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or two, and Georgette could become a remnant low within the next couple of days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 81/82W north of 03N, moving west around 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 05.5N to 13N between 77W and 90W. A tropical wave has its axis along 96W from 03N northward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 94W and 101W. A tropical wave has its axis along 117W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 116W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 08N94W to 11N117W. The ITCZ extends from 12N134W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 105W and 111W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge is located between the Baja California peninsula and Tropical Storm Frank. A recent ASCAT pass shows light to gentle winds across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are likely 5-6 ft. Light winds are noted across the Gulf of California with slight seas. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, ASCAT data from around 02/1600 UTC show fresh to strong northerly winds. Seas there are likely near 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas near 6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will return to the waters west of Baja California late tonight and persist through Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred nm south of eastern Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form this weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This could bring fresh to strong winds and building seas to the outer offshore waters of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas later in the week, and then offshore Guerrero by Sat. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 90W with seas 5 to 7 ft. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will remain across the region through today, except for moderate to locally fresh winds south of the monsoon trough. This will continue through the end of the week as broad low pressure forms to the south- southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region by Thu. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Papagayo region tonight into early Wed with seas building to near 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Post Tropical Cyclone Frank and on Tropical Depression Georgette. A ridge dominates waters west of 133W and north of 17N. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail outside of Frank and Georgette. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail south of 06N and west of 122W. Seas are 7 ft in this area. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Frank will move north of 30N Wed night. Georgette should gradually weaken over the next couple days. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred nm south of eastern Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form this weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This could bring increasing winds and seas to waters east of 110W and north of 07N by Sat. $$ Hagen