000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 24.8N 125.4W at 02/1500 UTC and moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently 16 ft. Isolated weak to moderate convection extends outward 120 nm in the SE quadrant. Frank is expected to make a gradual turn toward the north over the next day and a half. Frank is expected to become post-tropical later today. Seas will drop below 12 ft late tonight. Tropical Depression Georgette is centered near 14.1N 130.4W at 02/1500 UTC and moving NE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection extends outward up to 300 nm from the center in the E semicircle and 120 nm W semicircle. The depression is expected to continue moving slowly north-northeastward through early Wed followed by a turn to the west along with an increase in forward speed Thu. Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Georgette could become a remnant low at any time within the next couple of days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 95W from 03N northward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 91.5W and 100.5W. A tropical wave has its axis along 115W from 02N to 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 115W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10.5N86W to 07N93W to 13N117W. The monsoon trough resumes from 12N132W to 11N138W. The ITCZ extends from 11N138W to beyond 10.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 79W and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 104W and 111W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge is located between the Baja California peninsula and Tropical Storm Frank. Light to gentle winds are noted across the Baja California offshore waters with seas 5-7 ft. Light winds are noted across the Gulf of California with slight seas. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong northerly winds are noted with seas 6-8 ft. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas near 6 ft. The thunderstorms that affected the central Gulf of California overnight have weakened this morning. Additional convection is noted now off the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, seas across the Baja California offshore waters will continue to improve today as Tropical Storm Frank weakens and moves farther away from the area. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will return to the Baja California region by Wed and continue through the end of the week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred nm south of eastern Mexico in a couple of days. A tropical depression could form this weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This could bring fresh to strong winds and building seas to the outer offshore waters of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas later in the week. This system has a medium chance of forming in the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 92W with seas 6 to 7 ft. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will remain across the region through today with slight to moderate seas. Winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to fresh by Wed. This will continue through the end of the week as broad low pressure forms to the south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region late tonight into early Wed with seas building to near 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on both Tropical Storm Frank and on Tropical Depression Georgette. A ridge dominates waters west of 132W and north of 17N. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail outside of Frank and Georgette. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail south of 06N and west of 122W. Seas are 7 to 8 ft in this area. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Winds and seas associated with Frank will continue to affect mainly the waters west of 120W and north of 20N through Wed. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred nm south of eastern Mexico in a couple of days. A tropical depression could form this weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This could bring increasing winds and seas to waters east of 107W and north of 07N by Sat. $$ Hagen