000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020954 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Aug 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 24.0N 124.7W at 02/0900 UTC and moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 17 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N to 25N between 122W and 125W. Frank is expected to take a gradual turn toward the north-northwest, north, and then north- northeast at a slightly faster forward speed through Thursday. Additional weakening is forecast, and Frank is expected to become post-tropical later today. Seas will drop below 12 ft tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Georgette is centered near 13.7N 130.9W at 02/0900 UTC and moving NNE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 130W and 133W. The depression is expected to continue having a slow north- northeastward motion through Wednesday followed by a turn to the west along with an increase in forward speed on Thursday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Georgette is expected to become a remnant low after that time. Seas will drop below 8 ft by Wed night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 90W from 03N to the El Salvador coast, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 88W and 92W. A tropical wave has its axis along 113W from 02N to 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 109W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N94W to 09N99W to 13N116W. The ITCZ extends from 12N134W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 83W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Frank. A weak ridge is located between the Baja California peninsula and tropical cyclone Frank. Light to gentle winds are noted across the Baja California offshore waters with seas 5-7 ft. Light winds are noted across the Gulf of California with slight seas. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong northerly winds are noted with seas 6-8 ft. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas near 6 ft. Strong thunderstorms are moving off the coast of northern Sinaloa, bringing gusty winds to the central Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Frank will weaken as it moves farther away from the Baja California offshore waters. Seas across these offshore waters will improve gradually today. The center of Frank will become post-tropical and move to 25.2N 125.8W this afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 27.0N 126.9W Wed morning, 28.9N 127.4W Wed afternoon, and move to 31.0N 127.4W by Thu morning. For the forecast outside of Frank, winds are expected to increase across the Baja California offshore waters to moderate to fresh by tonight and continue through the rest of the week. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds will continue through Wed and will increase gentle to moderate by Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight and end by Wed morning. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of eastern Mexico in a few days. Some development of this system is possible by the end of this week while it moves west- northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. This could bring fresh to strong winds and building seas to the outer offshore waters of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas later in the week. This system has a low chance of forming in the next 48 hours and 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 90W with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will remain across the region through Tue with slight to moderate seas. Winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to fresh by Wed. This will continue through the end of the week as broad low pressure forms to the south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Winds will pulse tonight at fresh to locally strong speeds with seas building to near 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on both Tropical Storm Frank and on Tropical Depression Georgette. A ridge dominates the NW corner of the forecast region. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted N of 13N. Mostly moderate southerly winds are noted S of 08N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range with seas near 8 ft in the southern portions of the forecast waters, S of 00N between 110W and 120W. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Winds and seas associated with Frank will continue to affect mainly the waters east of 120W. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank is currently reaching near 28N. As Frank weakens and progresses northward, the edge of the 8 ft seas will reach 30N by Tue night. The center of Frank is expected to move north of 30N by Wed night where conditions will improve. $$ AReinhart