877 AXPZ20 KNHC 020426 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Aug 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 23.4N 124.0W at 02/0300 UTC and moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N to 24N between 122W and 124W. Frank is expected to make a gradual turn toward the north-northwest, north, and then north- northeast at a slightly faster forward speed through Thursday. Additional weakening is forecast, and Frank is expected to become post-tropical by late Tuesday. Seas will drop below 12 ft by Tue night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Georgette is centered near 13.5N 131.2W at 02/0300 UTC and moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 128W and 132W. The depression has been meandering during the past few hours but a slow north-northeastward motion is expected to start overnight, and this motion should continue through Wednesday. A turn to the west along with an increase in forward speed is forecast to occur on Thursday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, and Georgette could degenerate into a remnant low at any time. This system will also maintain at least 8 ft seas through Thu morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 88W from 02N to the Nicaragua coast, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 86W and 93W. A tropical wave has its axis along 112W from 02N to 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 15N between 110W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 08N82W to 09N99W to 14N114W. The ITCZ extends from 11N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 78W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Frank. A weak ridge is located between the Baja California peninsula and tropical cyclone Frank. Light to gentle winds are near Baja California with moderate NW winds near the northern and central Baja California coast. Seas are 5-7 ft over the Baja California offshore waters, with 8 ft seas near the far western portions of the offshore waters due to TS Frank. Light to gentle winds are noted across the Gulf of California with slight seas. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong northerly winds are noted with seas 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas 3-4 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Frank will continue to pull away from the offshore forecast waters through Tue night as it continues to weaken. The center of Frank will move northwestward beyond 30N late on Wed. Frank will move to 24.5N 125.1W Tue morning, become post-tropical and move to 26.2N 126.3W Tue evening, weaken to a remnant low near 28.1N 127.3W Wed morning, 30.2N 127.6W Wed evening, 32.0N 127.3W Thu morning, and 33.8N 126.6W Thu evening. Frank will dissipate late Fri. For the forecast outside of Frank, seas over the western Baja California offshore waters will improve through Tue night. Winds are expected to increase moderate to fresh by Tue night and into Wed and continue through the rest of the week. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds will continue through Wed and will increase gentle to moderate by Tue. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue night into the early Wed morning. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of eastern Mexico in a few days. Some development of this system is possible later this week while it moves west- northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. This could bring fresh to strong winds and building seas to the outer offshore waters of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas and waters downwind of the Tehuantepec region later in the week. This system has a low chance of forming in the next 48 hours and 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 89W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 4-6 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will remain across the region through Tue, with slight to moderate seas. Winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to fresh by Wed with a slight increase in speeds. This will continue through the end of the week as broad low pressure forms to the south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Winds will pulse tonight at fresh to locally strong speeds downwind of the Papagayo region. Winds will pulse again on Wed night with seas building to 9 to 10 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on both Tropical Storm Frank and on Tropical Depression Georgette. A ridge dominates the NW corner of the forecast region where mainly moderate NE winds are noted N of 12N and moderate to fresh winds S of 12N and W of 113W. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range based on altimeter data. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Winds and seas associated with Frank will continue to affect mainly the waters east of 125W over the next few days as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank is currently reaching near 28N. As Frank progresses northward, the edge of the 8 ft seas will reach 30N by Tue night. $$ AReinhart