000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Frank has downgraded to tropical storm at 01/0900 UTC. At this time, the tropical cyclone is centered near 21.7N 121.5W moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently 26 ft. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate convection within 30 nm of center, except 60 nm SE quadrant. Frank is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Continued steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Frank should become a post-tropical cyclone by Tuesday night. Tropical Depression Georgette is moving very slowly with little change in strength. It is centered near 12.8N 130.2W at 01/0900 UTC moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 11 ft. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 90 nm W semicircle. On the forecast track, a slow northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast to begin later today or tonight, and this motion should continue into Wednesday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 108W/109W from 03N to 19N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 14N between 110W and 115W. Similar convection is also noted from 13N to 16N between 115W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 10N102W to 13N112W. It resumes to the SW of Tropical Depression Georgette at 10N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 08N between 78W and 83W, from 08N to 13N between 97W and 105W, and from 08N to 10N W of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Frank. A weak ridge is located between the Baja California peninsula and tropical cyclone Frank. Recent scatterometer data indicate light to gentle winds near Baja California with the exception of gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the outer offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds are noted near Los Cabos to the entrance of the Gulf of California, and also over the northern Gulf of California. Mainly gentle southeast to south winds are over the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters except in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where fresh to strong northerly winds are blowing with seas of 6-7 ft. Seas generated by Frank continue to propagate across the waters W of Baja California with seas of 6 to 9 ft W of 110W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Frank will continue to pull away from the offshore forecast waters over the next few days as it further weakens while moving northwestward beyond 30N late on Wed. Frank will move to 22.9N 122.6W this afternoon, 24.5N 124.0W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 26.2N 125.3W Tue afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 28.0N 126.1W Wed morning, 29.9N 126.6W Wed afternoon, and 31.8N 126.5W Thu morning. Frank will change little in intensity as it moves to near 35.0N 125.5W early Fri. For the forecast outside of Frank, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range associated with the outer periphery of Frank will continue to affect the outer offshore waters of Baja California through late Tue. Then, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will return to the area, mainly N of Punta Eugenia Wed and Thu as the ridge re-establishes across the region. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE to S winds will prevail. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and downwind to about 14N through Tue night into the early Wed morning. Seas there are forecast to reach 8 ft today. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of eastern Mexico in a few days. Some development of this system is possible later this week while it moves west-northwestward. This could bring fresh to strong east to southeast winds and building seas to the outer offshore waters of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas and waters downwind of the Tehuantepec region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 89W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except 6-8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 89W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will remain across the region through Tue, with slight to moderate seas. Winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to fresh by mid-week and continue through the end of the week as broad low pressure forms to the south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Winds will pulse fresh to strong mainly at night downwind of the Papagayo region through mid-week with seas building to 9 or 10 ft by Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on both Tropical Storm Frank and on Tropical Depression Georgette. A ridge dominates the NW corner of the forecast region where mainly moderate NE winds are noted per satellite derived wind data. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range based on altimeter data. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Winds and seas associated with Frank will continue to affect mainly the waters east of 125W over the next few days as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank is currently reaching near 26N. As Frank progresses northward, the edge of the 8 ft seas will reach 30N by Tue night. Long-period southeast to south swell over the far southern waters, roughly between 108W-120W, will decay by this evening. $$ GR