000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010322 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Frank is centered near 20.8N 120.7W at 01/0300 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are currently 28 ft. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate convection within 60 nm of center, except 90 nm SE quadrant. Frank should weaken to hurricane strength tonight. Then, steady weakening is expected during the next few days, and Frank is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Frank is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Tropical Depression Georgette is centered near 12.7N 130.1W at 01/0300 UTC moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 11 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm SW quadrant, and from 10N to 12N between 128W and 132W. On the forecast track, A slow westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin on Monday, and this motion should continue through early Wednesday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 108W from 03N to 19N, moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong from 10N to 13N between 110W AND 114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 10N102W to 13N112W. It resumes to the SW of Tropical Depression Georgette at 11N133W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 04N to 07N between 82W and 87W, from 09N to 12N between 95W and 105W, and from 07N to 10N W of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Frank. A weak high pressure ridge remains over the offshore waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro producing light and gentle winds north of Punta Eugenia. An ASCAT pass depicted moderate to fresh southeast to south winds over the northern Gulf of California. Mainly gentle southeast to south winds are over the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with the exception of moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the outer offshore waters between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro where seas are 7-11 ft due to swell generated by Hurricane Frank, which is locate about 600 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California. Seas of 6-7 ft are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Hurricane Frank will continue to pull away from the offshore forecast waters over the next few days as it weakens. Frank will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 121.8W Mon morning, move to 23.6N 123.3W Mon evening, 25.3N 124.6W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 26.9N 125.7W Tue evening, become a remnant low and move to 28.8N 126.4W Wed morning, and 30.6N 126.5W Wed evening. Frank will change little in intensity as it moves to near 33.5N 126.0W late Thu. For the forecast outside of Frank, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of Punta Eugenia through Wed. Winds and seas associated with the outer periphery of Frank are spreading across the waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Moderate east to southeast winds over the central and southern sections of the waters will shift west of the water by Mon evening. The seas of 7-11 ft between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro will subside late Mon night. Seas of 8 ft or greater are expected to reach the outer forecast waters north of Punta Eugenia tonight. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE to S winds will prevail. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and downwind to about 14N most of the forecast period. Seas there are forecast to reach 8 ft on Mon. A broad area of low pressure may form south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late in the week bringing fresh to strong east to southeast winds and building seas to the outer offshore waters of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas and waters downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 87W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except 5-7 ft downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 88W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will remain across the region through Tue, with slight to moderate seas. Winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to fresh by mid-week and continue through the end of the week of the week as broad low pressure forms to the south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Winds will pulse fresh to strong mainly at night downwind of the Papagayo region through mid-week with seas building to 6-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on both Hurricane Frank and on Tropical Depression Georgette. An area of fresh south to southwest winds feeding into Frank was captured again by scatterometer data covering the waters from about 10N to 17N between 115W-121W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge dominates the waters north of 20N west of 125W with gentle to moderate north to northeast winds. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Winds and seas associated with Frank will affect mainly the waters east of 125W over the next few days as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank is currently reaching near 25N. As Frank progresses northward, the edge of the 8 ft seas will reach to near 30N by Tue. Long-period southeast to south swell over the far southern waters, roughly between 108W-120W, will decay by late Mon afternoon or early Mon evening. $$ GR