000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312247 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 31 2022 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Frank is centered near 20.1N 120.1W at 31/2100 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt Peak seas are currently 28 ft. Satellite imagery shows that tips of convection continue to warm. Convection overall appears to be decreasing in coverage, especially in the W quadrant. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate convection within 120 nm E and 60 nm W semicircles of the center. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is to the SE of Frank from 14N to 18N between 114W-117W. Frank is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days, and Frank is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by late Tue. Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Georgette is centered near 12.7N 130.1W at 31/2100 UTC moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has diminished to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently to 12 ft within 15 nm in the E semicircle. The deep convection that had pulse back up during the morning hours, has begun to weaken. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. A slow westward or west- southwestward motion is expected through tonight. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin on Mon, and this motion should continue through early Wed. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 107W from 03N to 19N, moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 10N to 14N. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 15N to 19N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N90W to 15N108W. It resumes to the SW of Tropical Depression Georgette at 10N131W to 08N140W. Numerous strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 78W-83W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 93W-95W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 100W-103W and within 30 nm north of the trough between 97W-99W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 91W-93W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 130W-133W, and within 30 nm north of the trough between 130W-135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Frank. A weak high pressure ridge remains over the offshore waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro producing light and gentle winds north of Punta Eugenia. A recent ASCAT pass depicted moderate to fresh southeast to south winds over the northern Gulf of California. Mainly gentle southeast to south winds are over the rest of the Gulf. Latest ASCAT data passes reveal light to gentle winds over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with the exception of moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the outer offshore waters between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro where seas are 7-11 ft due to southwest to west swell generated by Hurricane Frank, which is locate about 600 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Seas of 6-7 ft are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Hurricane Frank will continue to pull away from the offshore forecast waters over the next few days as it weakens. Frank will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.3N 121.2W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, reach to near 22.9N 122.6W early Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 24.5N 124.0W late Mon night, then weaken to a depression near 26.2N 125.3W early Tue with maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt and weaken further to a remnant low near 27.9N 126.1W late night. For the forecast outside of Frank, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of Punta Eugenia through Wed. Winds and seas associated with the outer periphery of Frank are spreading across the waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Moderate east to southeast winds over the central and southern sections of the waters will shift west of the water by Mon evening. The seas of 7-11 ft between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro will subside late Mon night. Seas of 8 ft or greater are expected to reach the outer forecast waters north of Punta Eugenia this evening. In the Gulf of California, the winds over the northern part of the Gulf are forecast to become light and variable on Mon, while the winds elsewhere over the Gulf will change little through the next few days. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and downwind to about 14N most of the forecast period. Seas there are forecast to reach 8 ft on Mon. An area of broad low pressure may form south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late in the week bringing fresh to strong east to southeast winds and building seas to the outer offshore waters of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas and waters downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 87W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except 5-7 ft downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 88W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will remain across the region through Tue, with slight to moderate seas. Winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to fresh by mid-week and continue through the end of the week of the week as broad low pressure forms to the south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Winds will pulse fresh to strong mainly at night downwind of the Papagayo region through mid-week with seas building to 6-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on both Hurricane Frank and on Tropical Depression Georgette. An area of fresh south to southwest winds feeding into Frank was captured on a recent ASCAT pass covering the waters from about 10N to 17N between 115W-121W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge dominates the waters north of 20N west of 125W with gentle to moderate north to northeast winds. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Winds and seas associated with Frank will affect mainly the waters east of 125W over the next few days as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank is currently reaching near 25N. As Frank progresses northward, the edge of the 8 ft seas will reach to near 30N by Tue. Long-period southeast to south swell over the far southern waters, roughly between 108W-120W, will decay by late Mon afternoon or early Mon evening. $$ Aguirre