000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312147 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2147 UTC Sun Jul 31 2022 Updated convection under Special Features for Georgette Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Updated Hurricane Frank is centered near 19.3N 119.3W at 31/1500 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently 32 ft. Satellite imagery shows that the cold cloud tops noted earlier this morning have warmed. Numerous moderate convection in bands are observed within 150 nm of the center in the E semicircle and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is SE of Frank from 13N to 17N between 113W- 115W. Frank is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Weakening is expected during the next few days as the cyclone moves over cooler waters, and Frank is forecast to become a post- tropical cyclone by late Tue. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 13.1N 129.7W at 31/1500 UTC moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Georgette remains a sheared system. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Georgette is forecast to continue on its current motion through tonight. A turn to the north is forecast occur on Mon. Some slight weakening is expected through tonight. Then, some slight re-intensification could occur in a couple of days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 105W from 03N to 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 10N to 14N. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 14N to 17N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 10N95W to 12N104W. It resumes to the SW of Tropical Storm Georgette at 10N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between 92W-94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 100W-102W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 130W-137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Frank. A weak high pressure ridge remains over the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing light and gentle winds. Seas are 3-6 ft in this area based on altimeter data. The ASCAT data passes also reveal light to gentle winds over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with the exception of moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the outer offshore waters between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro where seas area 8-12 ft due to swell generated by Hurricane Frank, which is located about 570 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Seas of 6-7 ft are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Hurricane Frank will continue to pull away from the offshore forecast waters over the next few days as it weakens. Frank will move to near 20.4N 120.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 121.8W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, reach near 23.5N 123.2W Mon evening, near 25.2N 124.5W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt and weaken to a remnant low near 27.0N 125.7W Tue evening, and to near 28.7N 126.4W Wed morning. The remnant low will weaken further as it moves to near 31.8N 126.4W early Thu For the forecast outside of Frank, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail N of Punta Eugenia today while winds and seas associated with the outer periphery of Frank will begin to spread across the waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Moderate NE winds will veer to the east, then southeast with seas building to 9 or 10 ft. Seas of 8 ft or greater will then reach the outer forecast waters N of Punta Eugenia by tonight. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southeast to south winds area expected during the next several days. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and downwind to about 14N most of the forecast period. Seas there are forecast to reach 8 ft on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data depict fresh northeast to east over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 87W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except 5-7 ft downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 88W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will remain across the region through at least Mon, with slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse fresh to strong mainly at night downwind of the Papagayo region through mid-week with seas building to 6-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on both Hurricane Frank and on Tropical Storm Georgette. A broad swath of fresh to strong south to southwest winds is feeding into Frank from 10N to 13N between 113W-118W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range based on recent altimeter passes. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 125W with gentle to moderate north to northeast winds. Seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Winds and seas associated with Frank will affect mainly the waters E of 125W over the next few days as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank is currently reaching 23N, and it is forecast to reach 25N by tonight. Long-period southerly swell over the far southern waters, will briefly reach the equator roughly between 110W-120W today, then begin to decay on Mon. $$ Aguirre