207 AXPZ20 KNHC 310933 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Frank is centered near 18.7N 118.6W at 31/0900 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are currently 32 ft. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection within 75 nm of center. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted elsewhere within 120 nm S semicircle. Frank is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Frank is expected to begin weakening today as it moves over cooler waters into a progressively drier and more stable air mass. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 13.3N 129.3W at 31/0900 UTC moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently near 14 ft. Georgette is a sheared system with numerous moderate to strong convection within about 90 nm W semicircle of center. On the forecast track, a westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected later today. The tropical storm is then expected to slow down further and make a northward turn by early next week. Some slight additional weakening is expected later today, though some slight re-intensification could occur early this week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 104W from 04N to 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave axis from 07N to 10N between 106W and 110W. A cluster of moderate convection is near the northern end of the wave axis affecting the coasts of Colima and Jalisco. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 10N100W to 2N110W. It resumes well to the SW of Hurricane Frank at 10N130W to 08N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted along the coast of Colombia from 03N to 06N, and from 06N to 08N between 79W and 82W. Similar convection is also seen N of 12N between 89W and 92W affecting the coast of Guatemala. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Frank. A weak ridge remains over the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing light and gentle winds. Seas are 3-6 ft in this area based on altimeter data. The ASCAT data passes also reveal light to gentle winds over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with the exception of moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the outer offshore waters between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro where seas area 8 to 12 ft due to the close proximity of Hurricane Frank. Seas of 6-7 ft are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast Hurricane Frank, will remain west of the offshore forecast waters. Frank will move to 19.7N 119.6W this afternoon, 21.2N 121.1W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.7N 122.5W Mon afternoon, 24.4N 123.9W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 26.0N 125.2W Tue afternoon, and become a remnant low and move to 27.8N 126.2W Wed morning. Frank will change little in intensity as it moves to near 31.0N 126.5W early Thu. For the forecast outside of Frank, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail N of Punta Eugenia today while winds and seas associated with the outer periphery of Frank will begin to spread across the waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Moderate NE winds will veer to the E then SE with seas building to 9 or 10 ft. Seas of 8 ft or greater will then reach the outer forecast waters N of Punta Eugenia by tonight. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate SE to S winds area expected during the next several days. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and downwind to about 14N most of the forecast period. Seas there are forecast to reach 8 ft on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data depict fresh northeast to east over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 87W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except 5-7 ft downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 88W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will remain across the region through at least Mon, with slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse fresh to strong mainly at night downwind of the Papagayo region through mid-week with seas building to 6-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on both Hurricane Frank and on Tropical Storm Georgette. A broad swath of fresh to strong south to southwest winds is feeding into Frank from 10N to 13N between 113W-118W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range based on recent altimeter passes. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 125W with gentle to moderate N to NE winds. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Winds and seas associated with Frank will affect mainly the waters E of 125W over the next few days as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank is currently reaching 23N, and it is forecast to reach 25N by tonight. Long-period southerly swell over the far southern waters, will briefly reach the equator roughly between 115W and 122W today, but decay on Mon. $$ GR