000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310327 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Frank is centered near 18.0N 117.7W at 31/0300 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are currently 32 ft. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection within 75 nm of center. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is in an outer wide band that is within 30 nm either side of a line from 16.5N120W to 16N118W to 17N116W to 18N116W. Frank should start weakening on Sunday as it moves over colder water. Frank is moving toward the northwest and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 13.4N 128.5W at 31/0300 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently near 14 ft. Georgette is a sheared system with numerous moderate to strong convection within about 180 nm SW quadrant of center. On the forecast track, a westward to west-southwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast for Sunday. The tropical storm is expected to slow down further after that, resulting in a meandering motion through the beginning of next week. Slow weakening is anticipated for the next several days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 103W from 04N to 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues to increase west of the wave to 110W from 07N to 12N. Similar convection is on the east side of the wave axis from 10N to 12N between 96W and 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 11N100W to 13N110W. It resumes well to the SW of Hurricane Frank at 10N127W to 08N140W. Outside of the tropical cyclones and the tropical wave, no significant convection is noted. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Frank. Weak high pressure remains over the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro. Latest ASCAT data passes show light to gentle NW-N winds over these waters. The ASCAT data passes also reveal light to gentle winds over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with the exception of gentle to moderate SW winds from near Los Cabos to the entrance to the Gulf of California, and fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range N of Cabo San Lazaro, and increase to 8-12 ft over the outer forecast waters between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro due to the close proximity of Hurricane Frank. Seas of 6-7 ft are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast Hurricane Frank, will remain west of the offshore forecast waters. Frank will move to 19.0N 118.8W Sun morning, 20.4N 120.3W Sun evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.7N 121.7W Mon morning, 23.2N 123.2W Mon evening, 24.7N 124.5W Tue morning, and become post-tropical and move to 26.3N 125.8W Tue evening. Frank will weaken to a remnant low near 28.8N 126.5W late Wed. For the forecast outside of Frank, mainly light to gentle to moderate NW-N winds will continue across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Winds have shifted to E-SE winds over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lazaro due to the outer influence of Frank. These winds were captured in a recent ASCAT data pass. Seas generated by Frank will continue to propagate across this area, building seas in excess of 8 ft, possibly reaching peak heights of around 14 or 15 ft in the most outer boundaries of the offshore waters zone that are between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate SE to S winds will change little through early Sun evening, then diminish slightly going into the early part of next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and downwind to about 14N into next week. Seas there are forecast to reach 8 ft by early Sun and change little into next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh northeast to east over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3-5 ft in a S to SW swell, except 5-7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will remain across the region through at least Mon, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. Winds will pulse fresh to strong at night downwind of the Papagayo region through Sun night and into next week. Seas will subside to 4-6 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on both Hurricane Frank and on Tropical Storm Georgette. A broad swath of fresh to strong south to southwest winds is feeding into Frank from 08N to 13N between 114W-122W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-12 ft range. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the waters N of 25N with gentle to moderate N to NE winds. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W through the rest of the weekend as Hurricane Frank moves northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank is currently reaching 22N, and it is forecast to reach 24N by early Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds associated with the outer periphery of Frank will continue to affect the outer forecast waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Los Cabos through early Sun, with swell generated by the hurricane propagating into the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro on Sun. Long- period southerly swell over the far southern waters, mainly south of the equator between 108W-120W will continue through Sun, but decay on Mon. $$ GR