000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Frank is centered near 16.6N 116.3W at 30/1500 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are currently 30 ft. Bands of very deep convection of the numerous moderate to strong type intensity are noted on satellite imagery near the center, and within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. In addition, an outer wide band of similar type convection is within 180 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is SE of Frank from 12N to 15N between 111W-115W. Scattered moderate convection in bands are within 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Frank is moving toward the northwest and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. After that, Frank is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler water. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 14.0N 126.8W at 30/1500 UTC moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently near 15 ft. Georgette continues to be affected by northeasterly upper shear. Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and 60 nm in the NW quadrant. On the forecast track, the storm is forecast to move on a similar heading at a slower forward speed for the next day or so. After that, Georgette's forward movement should slow further, resulting in a meandering motion through the remainder of the weekend. A turn toward the northeast is expected by early next week. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with gradual weakening anticipated after that. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 102W from 04N to 17N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is increasing within 120 nm within either side of the wave from 07N to 10N and from 14N to 17N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 09N93W to 11N101W to 14N107W. It resumes SW of Hurricane Frank at 10N130W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 119W-125W, and from 10N to 12N between 116W-118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Frank. A weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Light to gentle winds are noted per scatterometer data over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with the exception of gentle to moderate SW winds from near Los Cabos to the entrance to the Gulf of California, and fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range W of Baja California, 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 8 to 11 ft near the Revillagigedo Islands due to the close proximity of Hurricane Frank. For the forecast Hurricane Frank, west of the offshore waters 16.6N 116.3W 965 mb at 8 am PDT is moving NW. Frank will continue on the this general motion for the next few days, reaching near 17.6N 117.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, then begin to gradually weaken as it nears 18.9N 119.0W early Sun, to near 20.1MN 120.4W Sun evening with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 121.9W early Mon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Frank is forecast to reach near 22.7N 123.3W Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 24.0N 124.7W early Tue with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt and weaken to a remnant low near 26.0N 127.0W early Wed. For the forecast outside of Frank, mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro while E to SE winds are expected between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lazaro today due to the outer influence of Frank. At the same time, seas generated by Frank will continue to propagate across this area, building seas to 11-12 ft or higher. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate SE to S winds will prevail. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N through at least the next 48 hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight ASCAT data shows moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Moderate to fresh east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo and offshore Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3-5 ft in a S to SW swell, except 5-7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region this weekend, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. Winds will pulse fresh to strong at night downwind of the Papagayo region through Sun night and into next week. Seas will subside to 4-6 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on both Hurricane Frank and on Tropical Storm Georgette. A broad swath of fresh to strong south to southwest winds is feeding into Frank from 06N to 12N between 114W-120W. Seas with these winds are 8-11 ft. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging is present N of about 19N and W of 125W. Winds are light and variable N of 22N between 118W and 125W while mainly moderate NE winds are noted under the influence if the ridge. Seas are 4-7 ft based on a couple of altimeter passes with the highest seas across the west-central waters and N of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W through the weekend as Hurricane Frank moves northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank is currently reaching 20N, and it is forecast to reach 24N by tonight. Fresh to strong winds associated with the outer periphery of Frank will continue to affect the outer forecast waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Los Cabos today and tonight. Long-period southerly swell will begin to propagate through the far southern waters mainly south of the equator between 105W-120W today and change little through Sun. $$ Aguirre