000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300928 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Frank is centered near 15.9N 115.4W at 30/0900 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. An altimeter pass indicates seas of 12 ft within 240 nm SE quadrant of Frank. Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of center. An outer band of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 112W and 19W. Frank is moving toward the northwest and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Additional, possibly rapid, strengthening is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours, and Frank could become a major hurricane by tonight. A weakening trend is expected to begin on Sunday as the tropical cyclone moves over much cooler waters and into a progressively drier airmass. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 14.2N 125.9W at 30/0900 UTC moving WSW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently near 14 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within about 60 nm SW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 14.5N between 125W and 127W. On the forecast track, the storm is forecast to move on a similar heading at a slower forward speed for the next day or so. After that, Georgette's forward movement should slow further, resulting in a meandering motion through the remainder of the weekend. A turn toward the northeast is expected by early next week. Not much change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with gradual weakening anticipated after that. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 100W/101W north of 05N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers are on either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 13N105W. It resumes SW of Hurricane Frank at 12N119W and continues to 08N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 11n between 119W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Frank. A weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Light to gentle winds are noted per scatterometer data over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with the exception of gentle to moderate SW winds from near Los Cabos to the entrance to the Gulf of California, and fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range W of Baja California, 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 8 to 11 ft near the Revillagigedo Islands due to the close proximity of Hurricane Frank. For the forecast, the center of Hurricane Frank will remain outside of the offshore forecast waters while moving NW. Frank will move to 16.9N 116.6W this afternoon, 18.2N 118.2W Sun morning, 19.5N 119.6W Sun afternoon, 20.9N 121.1W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 122.6W Mon afternoon, and 23.4N 124.0W Tue morning. Frank will weaken to a remnant low near 25.5N 126.7W early Wed. For the forecast outside of Frank, mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro while E to SE winds are expected between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lazaro today due to the outer influence of Frank. At the same time, seas generated by Frank will continue to propagate across this area, building seas to 11-12 ft or higher. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate SE to S winds will prevail. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N through at least the next 48 hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The most recent scatterometer data show moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Moderate to fresh east winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo and offshore Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in a S to SW swell, except 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region this weekend, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. Winds will pulse fresh to strong at night downwind of the Papagayo region through the weekend and into next week. Seas will subside to 4-6 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Frank and on Tropical Storm Georgette. A recent ASCAT data pass reveals a broad swath of fresh to strong south to southwest winds feeding into Frank from 06N to 12N between 115W and 120W. Seas with these winds are 8-11 ft. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging is present N of about 19N and W of 125W. Winds are light and variable N of 22N between 118W and 125W while mainly moderate NE winds are noted under the influence if the ridge. Seas are 4-7 ft based on a couple of altimeter passes with the highest seas across the west-central waters and N of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W through the weekend as Hurricane Frank moves northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank is currently reaching 20N, and it is forecast to reach 24N by tonight. Fresh to strong winds associated with the outer periphery of Frank will continue to affect the outer forecast waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Los Cabos today and tonight. Long-period southerly swell will begin to propagate through the far southern waters mainly south of the equator between 105W-120W today and change little through Sun. $$ GR