000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300329 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Frank is upgraded to hurricane status at 30/0300 UTC. This makes Frank the sixth hurricane of the 2022 eastern North Pacific season. At this time, Frank is centered near 15.1N 114.8W moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 26 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of center. An outer band of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 113W and 118W. On the forecast track, a turn to the northwest is expected to occur on Saturday, and that motion should continue for the next few days. Additional strengthening is expected, and Frank could be near major hurricane strength this weekend. However, weakening is expected to begin late Sunday as the tropical cyclone moves over much cooler waters and into a progressively drier airmass. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 14.5N 125.1W at 30/0300 UTC moving WSW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently near 16 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within about 75 nm SW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 16N between 124W and 128W. On the forecast track, the tropical storm is forecast to move on a similar heading with a slower forward speed for the next day or so. After that, Georgette's forward movement will slow further, resulting in a meandering motion through the weekend. A turn toward the northeast is expected by early next week. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with gradual weakening anticipated after that. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 100W north of 05N, moving westward around 10 kt. Very little convective activity is noted with this wave. Only isolated showers are seen from 07N to 10N between 96W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Frank, newly upgraded to hurricane status. Latest ASCAT data depicts generally gentle to moderate NW-N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds in the north and central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail across the SW coast of Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with seas in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Frank will move to 16.0N 116.2W Sat morning, 17.1N 117.8W Sat evening, 18.5N 119.4W Sun morning, 19.7N 120.8W Sun evening, 21.0N 122.4W Mon morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 22.2N 123.9W Mon evening. Frank will change little in intensity as it moves to near 24.3N 126.8W late Tue. For the forecast outside of Frank, mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail across the waters off Baja California through tonight. Winds will turn to the E and SE across the offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lazaro on Sat due to the outer influence of Frank. At the same time, seas generated by Frank will propagate across this area, building seas of up to 11 or 12 ft. In the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected in the north part of the Gulf while mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest ASCAT data passes reveal moderate to fresh east winds over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo and offshore Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in a S to SW swell, except 4 to 6 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region through the weekend, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. Winds will pulse fresh to strong at night downwind of the Papagayo region through the weekend and into next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Frank and on Tropical Storm Georgette. A recent ASCAT data pass reveals a broad swath of fresh to strong south to southwest winds feeding into Frank from 06N to 12N between 110W AND 120W. Seas with these winds are 8-11 ft. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging is present N of about 19N and W of 115W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to moderate N-NE winds continue, with seas of 5-7 ft across the open Pacific, except 4-5 ft over the NW corner of the forecast area. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W through the weekend as Tropical Storm Frank intensifies while moving northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank are expected to reach 20N by tonight, and 24N by Sat night. The aforementioned fresh to strong winds, and strong to near gale S to SW winds that are to the S of Frank will gradually shift westward in tandem with Frank during the weekend, reaching to near 125W by Sun night along with seas of 8-12 ft. These conditions will be around the vicinity of Georgette as well. Long-period southerly swell will begin to propagate through the far southern waters mainly south of the equator between 105W- 120W on Sat and change little through Sun. $$ GR