000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 14.8N 113.8W at 29/2100 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 23 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows a increasing banding features that are quickly coiling around the center of the cyclone. They consist of numerous strong type intensity within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant and of numerous moderate to strong intensity within 60 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle and within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. A very wide outer band consisting of numerous moderate to strong convection is noted SE through SW of the cyclone from 10N to 13N between 109W-113W and from 10N to 13N between 113W-116W. Similar convection is to the southwest from 10N to 11N between 117W-119W. Frank is forecast to remain on its current motion through the weekend. Additional strengthening is expected through Sat night, and Frank is forecast to become a hurricane in the next several hours. Frank is expected to weaken on Sun as it moves over cooler water. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near near 14.7N 124.0W at 29/2100 UTC moving WSW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently near 16 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows associated convection displaced to the west of the cyclone. It is diminishing under the influence of northeasterly vertical shear. It consist of scattered moderate to isolated intensity, and is located from 14N to 16N between 124W- 126W. Georgette is a very small storm. A west-southwest to southwest motion at a gradually slower pace is expected during the next few of days followed by a turn toward the northeast by early next week. Although Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the short term due to Georgette's compact size. Slow weakening is forecast to commence by the end of the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 99W north of 05N, moving westward around 10 kt. Very little convective activity is noted with this wave. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east and 120 nm west of the wave from 12N to 16N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 09N93W to 10N100W and 12N105W. It resumes well to the SW of Frank at 09N122W and continues to 08N130W and 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 122W- 125W, also within 60 nm south of the trough between 125W-131W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 134W=139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Frank. Latest ASCAT data depicts generally gentle to moderate NW-N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds in the north and central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail across the SW coast of Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with seas in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Frank will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.3N 114.3W this evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 16.5N 116.1W Sat morning, to near 17.7N 117.9W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, then begin to weaken as it reaches near 18.9N 119.6W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 20.2N 121.2W Sun evening and to near 21.5N 122.8W Mon morning. Frank is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 24.0N 126.0W early on Tue with maximum winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. For the forecast outside of Frank, mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail across the waters off Baja California through tonight. Winds will turn to the E and SE across the offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lazaro Sat due to the outer influence of Frank. At the same time, seas generated by Frank will propagate across this area, building seas of up to 11 or 12 ft. In the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected in the north part of the Gulf while mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest ASCAT data passes reveal moderate to fresh east winds over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo and offshore Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in a S to SW swell, except 4 to 6 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region through the weekend, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. Winds will pulse fresh to strong at night downwind of the Papagayo region through the weekend and into next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Frank and on Tropical Storm Georgette. A recent ASCAT data pass reveals a broad swath of fresh to strong south to southwest winds feeding into Frank from 04N to 10N between about 110W-120W. Winds of strong to near gale-force winds seen from 10N to 12N between 111W-115W. Seas with these winds are 7-11 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are north of Frank from 17N to 20N between 109W-116W. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging is present N of about 19N and W of 120W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to moderate N-NE winds continue, with seas of 5-7 ft across the open Pacific, except 4-5 ft over the NW corner of the forecast area. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W through the weekend as Tropical Storm Frank intensifies while moving northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank are expected to reach 20N by this evening and 24N by Sat evening. The aforementioned fresh to strong and strong to near gale S to SW winds that are to the S of Frank will gradually shift westward in tandem with Frank during the weekend, reaching to near 125W by Sun night along with seas of 8-12 ft. These conditions will be around the vicinity of Georgette as well. Long-period southerly swell will begin to propagate through the far southern waters mainly the waters south of the equator between 105W-120W. $$ Aguirre