000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291920 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1920 UTC Fri Jul 29 2022 Updated Special Features for convection related to Frank and Georgette Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Updated Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 14.2N 113.0W at 29/1500 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 22 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows a increasing banding features that are quickly coiling around the center of the cyclone. They consist of numerous strong type intensity within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant and of numerous moderate to strong intensity within 60 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle and within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. A very wide outer band consisting of numerous moderate to strong convection is noted SE through SW of the cyclone from 10N to 13N between 109W-113W and from 10N to 13N between 113W-116W. Similar convection is to the southwest from 10N to 11N between 117W-119W. Frank is forecast to turn to the northwest later today, and a general northwestward motion should then continue through Sun. Strengthening is expected through Saturday night, and Frank is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Frank is expected to weaken on Sun. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 15.1N 123.0W at 29/1500 UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently near 14 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows associated convection displaced to the west of the cyclone. It is diminishing under the influence of easterly vertical shear. It consist of scattered moderate to isolated intensity, and is located from 14N to 16N between 124W- 126W. Georgette is a very small storm. A west-southwest to southwest motion at a gradually slower pace is expected during the next few of days followed by a turn toward the northeast by early next week. Although Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the short term due to Georgette's compact size. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Frank and Georgette. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 98W north of 05N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm west of the wave north of 16N to just inland and near Puerto Angel, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the wave from 15N to 16N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 10N97W and to 12N103W. It resumes at 12N119W to 09N120W to 08N136W. ITCZ extends from 08N136W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 118W-125W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 83W-85W and within 30 nm north of the trough between 83W-85W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Frank. Overnight scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate NW-N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds in the north and central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail across the SW coast of Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with seas in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Frank will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.3N 114.3W this evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 16.5N 116.1W Sat morning, to near 17.7N 117.9W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, then begin to weaken as it reaches near 18.9N 119.6W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 20.2N 121.2W Sun evening and to near 21.5N 122.8W Mon morning. Frank is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 24.0N 126.0W early on Tue with maximum winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. For the forecast outside of Frank, mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail across the waters off Baja California through tonight. Winds will turn to the E and SE across the offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lazaro by Sat due to the outer influence of Frank. At the same time, seas generated by Frank will propagate across this area, building seas of up to 11 or 12 ft. In the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected in the north part of the Gulf while mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh east winds over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo and offshore Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in a S to SW swell, except 4 to 6 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region into the weekend, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. Winds will pulse fresh to strong at night downwind of the Papagayo region during the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette. Outside of Frank and Georgette, a ridge dominates the waters N of 20N and W of 115W. prevails across the waters west of 120W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft across the open Pacific, except 4-5 ft over the NW corner of the forecast area. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W today as Tropical Storm Frank intensifies while moving northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank are expected to reach 20N by this evening and 24N by Sat evening. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop over the tropics between 110W- 130W over the weekend and feed into Frank and Georgette, with seas building 7-8 ft. South to southeasterly swell will enter the area this weekend, affecting mainly the waters south of the equator. $$ Aguirre