000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 13.2N 111.7W at 29/0300 UTC moving W at 9 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 109W and 113W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is elsewhere from 09.5N to 14.5N between 105W and 114W. Frank continues to strengthen, and it is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 15.5N 120.7W at 29/0300 UTC moving W at 10 kt. A west-southwest to southwest motion at a gradually slower pace is expected during the next couple of days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently near 14 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 15N to 16.5N between 120W and 121.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 14N to 17N between 120W and 123W. Georgette is a very small storm and little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W north of 04N, moving westward 10 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N105W then resumes SW of T.S. Frank near 11N117W to 08N134W. The ITCZ extends from 08N134W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07.5N between 82W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 12N between 114W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Frank. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail over the forecast waters off SW Mexico to the northeast of T.S. Frank. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the outer waters there. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except for moderate northerly winds off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with seas in the 2-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, T.S. Frank will strengthen to a hurricane near 13.8N 113.0W Fri morning, move to 14.9N 114.7W Fri evening, 16.1N 116.5W Sat morning, 17.4N 118.2W Sat evening, 18.7N 119.9W Sun morning, and 19.9N 121.7W Sun evening. Frank will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.2N 124.9W late Mon. For the forecast outside of Frank, gentle to moderate NW winds across the waters off Baja California Norte will diminish Fri through the weekend in advance of Frank. Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail across the northern and central portions of the Gulf of California through early Fri then become moderate to locally fresh Fri afternoon through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region into the weekend, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. Winds will pulse fresh to strong at night downwind of the Papagayo region beginning Fri through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette. Outside of Frank and Georgette, a broad ridge prevails across the waters west of 120W. Winds over the area are mainly moderate or weaker with seas 5 to 7 ft across the open Pacific, except 4-5 ft over the NW corner of the forecast area. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W beginning Fri as Tropical Storm Frank intensifies while moving northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank are expected to reach 20N Fri evening and 24N by Sat evening. Fresh S to SW winds will build across the tropics between 110W and 130W over the weekend and feed into Frank and Georgette, with seas building 7-8 ft. South to southeasterly swell will enter the area this weekend, affecting waters south of the equator. $$ GR