709 AXPZ20 KNHC 282223 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 13.1N 111.1W at 2100 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are across the NE quadrant near 20 ft. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09.5N TO 14.5N between 104W AND 114W. Frank is expected to take a turn to the WNW tonight while gradually strengthening, becoming a hurricane Fri morning, then move NW around 10 kt Fri night through Sun. Frank is expected to peak as a 95 kt hurricane Sat afternoon near 16.9N 117.5W. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 15.6N 120.1W at 2100 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently near 12 ft across the NW quadrant. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is seen 14.5N to 16.5N between 118W AND 121.5W. Georgette is a very small storm and is expected to move west-southwest to southwest through Sat before stalling, then will begin to lift NE then N late Sun and Mon and follow Frank towards the N. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W/96W north of 04N, moving westward 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N82W to 11N102W, then resumes S of T.S. Georgette near 11.5N120W to 10.5N125W to 12.5N135W. The ITCZ extends from 12.5N135W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 10N between 77W and 89W, from 07.5N to 11.5N between 114W and 119W, and from 09N to 11N between 125W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Frank. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail over the forecast waters off SW Mexico to the northeast of T.S. Frank. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the outer waters there. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except for moderate northerly winds off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with seas in the 2-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, T.S. Frank is expected to move on a WNW track near 10 kt through Sat, while gradually intensifying, reaching hurricane strength Sat morning near 14N113W. Frank is then expected to move more NW and strengthen through Sun afternoon to a 95 kt hurricane near 16.9N117.5W. Frank will spread fresh to strong southeasterly winds and seas to around 8 ft across the outer offshore waters of southwest Mexico tonight then spread increasing seas across the outer offshore waters off of Cabo Corrientes and Baja California Sur Sat through Sun and into the offshore waters of Baja Norte Sun night through Mon. Seas will build to 8 to 15 ft across these outer offshore waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds across the waters off Baja California Norte will diminish Fri through the weekend in advance of Frank. Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail across the northern and central portions of the Gulf of California through early Fri then become moderate to locally fresh Fri afternoon through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate offshore winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region into the weekend, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. Winds will pulse fresh to strong at night downwind of the Papagayo region beginning Fri through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette. Outside of Frank and Georgette, a broad ridge prevails across the waters west of 120W. Winds over the area waters are mainly moderate or weaker with seas 5 to 6 ft across the open Pacific, except to 7 ft from 12N to 19N west of 135W. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W beginning Fri as Tropical Storm Frank intensifies while moving northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank are expected to reach 20N Fri evening and 24N by Sat evening. Fresh S to SW winds will build across the tropics between 110W and 130W over the weekend and feed into Frank and Georgette, with seas building 7-8 ft. South to southeasterly swell will enter the area this weekend, affecting waters south of 03N. $$ Stripling