000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 13.2N 110.0W at 28/1500 UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently near 18 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 330 nm of the center of the S semicircle. A turn to the WNW is expected later today or tonight, followed by a turn to the NW Fri night or Sat. Strengthening is forecast, and Frank should become a hurricane on Fri. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 15.8N 118.7W at 28/1500 UTC moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently near 12 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen within 75 nm of the center in the E semicircle and within 120 nm W semicircle. A turn to the west-southwest or southwest is anticipated today or tonight into the weekend. A little additional strengthening is forecast today or tonight followed by little change in intensity through the weekend. The latest forecast has Georgette dissipating around Mon night as it becomes absorbed into the circulation of Frank. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W north of 04N, moving westward 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N102W, then resumes SW of T.S. Georgette near 11N120W to 12N135W. The ITCZ extends from 12N135W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 77W and 85W, from 09N to 12N between 97W and 102W, and from 09N to 13N between 120W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Frank. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail over the forecast waters off SW Mexico to the north and northeast of T.S. Frank. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the outer waters there. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except for moderate northerly winds off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with seas in the 2-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, T.S. Frank is expected to continue on a WNW track near 10 kt during the next few days, while slowly intensifying. Frank will spread fresh to strong easterly winds and seas to around 8 ft across the outer offshore waters of southwest Mexico and Baja California Sur Fri through Sat before Frank begins to move well offshore. Associated swell will continue to spread northward across the waters W of Cabo Corrientes Fri evening and then offshore of Baja Sur Sat, with seas building 8 to 15 ft across the outer offshore waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds across the waters off Baja California Norte will diminish Fri. Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail across the northern and central portions of the Gulf of California through early Fri then become moderate to locally fresh Fri afternoon through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate offshore winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region into the weekend, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. Winds will pulse fresh to strong at night downwind of the Papagayo region beginning Fri through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette. Outside of Frank and Georgette, a broad ridge prevails across the waters west of 120W. Winds over the area waters are mainly moderate or weaker with seas 5 to 6 ft across the open Pacific. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days outside of Frank and Georgette. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W as Tropical Storm Frank intensifies while moving northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank are expected to reach 19N Fri evening and 24N by Sat evening. Fresh S to SW winds will build across the tropics between 110W and 130W over the weekend and feed into Frank and Georgette, with seas building 7-8 ft. A south to southeasterly swell will enter the area this weekend, affecting waters south of 03N. $$ Hagen