000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280859 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 12.9N 108.9W at 28/0900 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking near 16 ft. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 107W and 111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 07N to 13N between 103W and 113W. Tropical Storm Frank near 12.9N 108.9W 1000 mb at 2 AM PDT moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Frank will move to 13.3N 110.3W this afternoon, 14.0N 112.0W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.9N 113.7W Fri afternoon, 16.0N 115.5W Sat morning, 17.2N 117.4W Sat afternoon, and 18.5N 119.1W Sun morning. Frank will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.7N 122.3W early Mon. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 15.8N 117.5W at 28/0900 UTC moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking near 11 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 15N to 19N between 116W and 120W. Georgette is forecast to move on a west- southwestward to southwestward track over the next day or two. The system is forecast to intensify slightly over the next 36 hours before beginning a weakening trend as it interacts with the larger circulation of Frank. The latest forecast has Georgette dissipating late this weekend as it becomes absorbed into the circulation of Frank. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 03N, moving westward 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N102W, then resumes SW of T.S. Georgette near 13N119W to 11N134W. The ITCZ extends from 11N134W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N east of 90W, from 06N to 11N between 115W and 130W, and from 10N to 13N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Frank. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail over the forecast waters off SW Mexico to the north and northeast of T.S. Frank. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the outer waters there. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except for moderate northerly winds off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with seas in the 2-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, T.S. Frank is expected to continue on a WNW track near 10 kt during the next few days, while slowly intensifying. Frank will spread fresh to strong easterly winds and seas to around 8 ft across the outer offshore waters of southwest Mexico through Fri before Frank begins to move well offshore. Associated swell will continue to spread northward across the waters W of Cabo Corrientes Fri evening and then offshore of Baja Sur Sat, with seas building 8 to 15 ft across the outer offshore waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds across the waters off Baja California Norte will diminish Fri. Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail across the northern and central portions of the Gulf of California through early Fri then become moderate to locally fresh Fri afternoon through the weekend. Southerly swell from Frank is expected across the offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes late Fri and then across the Baja Sur waters by Sat, spreading northward and raising seas 8 to 15 ft across the outer offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, which is along about 10N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region into the weekend, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. Winds will pulse fresh to strong at night downwind of the Papagayo region beginning Fri through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette. Outside of Frank and Georgette, a broad ridge prevails across the waters west of 120W. Winds over the area waters are mainly moderate or weaker, with peak wind and seas between 12N and 25N and W of 125W. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the open Pacific. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W as Tropical Storm Frank intensifies while moving northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank are expected to reach 19N Fri evening and 25N by Sat evening. Fresh S to SW winds will build across the tropics between 110W and 130W over the weekend and feed into Frank and Georgette, with seas building 7-8 ft. $$ AL