000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280253 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jul 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 12.7N 108.0W at 28/0300 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.Seas are peaking near 15 ft. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 107W and 111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 07N to 14N between 104W and 113W. Frank will move to 13.0N 109.4W Thu morning, 13.5N 111.3W Thu evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.3N 113.0W Fri morning, 15.2N 114.8W Fri evening, 16.3N 116.6W Sat morning, and 17.4N 118.3W Sat evening. Frank will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.8N 121.5W late Sun. Tropical Storm Georgette is centered near 16.4N 116.6W at 28/0300 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 14.5N to 19N between 115W and 119W. Georgette is moving westward or about 9 kt. The system is forecast to intensify slightly over the next 72 hours, with the track expected to turn west- southwestward and southwestward during the next 48 hours. There is a lot of uncertainty with this smaller system due to its expected interaction with the larger Georgette. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W/93W north of 03N, moving westward 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W, then resumes SW of T.S. Georgette near 13N119W to 12N134W. The ITCZ extends from 12N134W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 80W and 90W, from 06N to 11N between 90W and 100W, and from 09N to 13N between 121W and 133W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Frank. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail over the forecast waters off SW Mexico to the north and northeast of T.S. Frank. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across the outer waters there. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except for moderate northerly winds off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with seas in the 2-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, T.S. Frank is expected to continue on a WNW track near 10 kt during the next few days, while slowly intensifying. Frank will spread fresh to strong easterly winds and seas to around 8 ft across the outer offshore waters of southwest Mexico through Fri before Frank begins to move well offshore. Associated swell will continue to spread northward across the waters W of Cabo Corrientes Fri evening and then offshore of Baja Sur Sat, with seas building 8 to 15 ft across the outer offshore waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds across the waters off Baja California Norte will diminish Fri. Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail across the northern and central portions of the Gulf of California through early Fri then become moderate to locally fresh Fri afternoon through the weekend. Southerly swell from Frank is expected across the offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes late Fri and then across the Baja Sur waters by Sat, spreading northward and raising seas 8 to 15 ft across the outer offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate offshore winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, which is along about 10N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region into the weekend, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. Winds will pulse fresh to strong at night downwind of the Papagayo region beginning Fri through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette. Outside of Frank and Georgette, a broad ridge prevails across the waters west of 120W, centered on a 1023 mb high near 32N137W. Winds over the area waters are mainly moderate or weaker, with peak wind and seas between 12N and 19N and W of 135W, where seas are near 7 ft. Otherwise, seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the open Pacific. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W as Tropical Storm Frank intensifies while moving northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank are expected to reach 19N Fri evening and 25N by Sat evening. Fresh S to SW winds will build across the tropics between 110W and 130W over the weekend and feed into Frank and Georgette, with seas building 7-8 ft. $$ AL