289 AXPZ20 KNHC 272225 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 12.5N 106.8W at 2100 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are peaking near 12 ft, within 60 nm across the N semicircle. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 14N between 104.5W and 112W. Frank is expected to continue on a WNW track at near 10 kt, reaching near 13.1N 110.3W Thu afternoon, then become a hurricane near 14.6N 113.8W Fri afternoon, then turn more NW and reach near 16.6N 117.2W Sat afternoon then continue NW and well offshore of the Baja California waters through Mon. Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Georgette is located near 16.5N 115.9W 1005 mb at 2100 UTC, moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt and confined to within only 20 nm across the NW quadrant, where seas are to 10 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 15.5N to 18N between 114.5W and 117.5W. This tiny system has been meandering about in this general area for a few days and is expected to move slowly WSW to SW over the next few days and strengthen modestly to a small tropical storm. Georgette is expected to become nearly stationary Fri night, and allow Frank to pass NE of Georgette through Sun. This may allow Georgette the opportunity to grow in size and then is expected to begin to follow behind Frank toward the north. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W north of 03N, moving westward 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 08.5N85W to 11.5N100W, then resumes SW of T.S. Georgette near 12.5N119W to 11N125W to 12N133W. The ITCZ extends from 12N133W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 08.5N E of 88W, from 06N to 15N between 89W and 101W, from 09N to 14N between 116W and 128W, and from 08N to 12.5N W of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Frank. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail over the forecast waters off SW Mexico to the north and northeast of T.S. Frank. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across the outer waters there. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except for moderate northerly winds off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with seas in the 2-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, T.S. Frank is expected to continue on a WNW track near 10 kt during the next few days, while slowly intensifying, reaching near 13.1N 110.3W Thu afternoon, and near 14.6N 113.8W as a hurricane Fri afternoon. Frank will spread fresh to strong easterly winds and seas to around 8 ft across the outer offshore waters of southwest Mexico through Fri before Frank begins to move well offshore. Associated swell will continue to spread northward across the waters W of Cabo Corrientes Fri evening and then offshore of Baja Sur Sat, with seas building 8 to 15 ft across the outer offshore waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds across the waters off Baja California Norte will diminish Fri. Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail across northern and central portions of the Gulf of California through early Fri, then increase to moderate to locally fresh Fri afternoon through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate offshore winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, which is along about 10N. Gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region into the weekend, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. Winds will pulse fresh to strong at night downwind of the Papagayo region beginning Fri through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Frank and newly upgraded Tropical Storm Georgette. Outside of Frank and Georgette, a broad ridge prevails across the waters west of 120W, centered on a 1023 mb high near 32N137W. Winds over the area waters are mainly moderate or weaker, with peak wind and seas between 12N and 19N and W of 135W, where seas are to 7 ft. Otherwise, seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the open Pacific. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W as Tropical Storm Frank intensifies while moving northwestward. The leading edge of 8 ft seas associated with Frank are expected to reach 19N Fri evening and 25N by Sat evening. Fresh S to SW winds will build across the tropics between 110W and 130W over the weekend and feed into Frank and Georgette, with seas building 7-8 ft. $$ Stripling