000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270850 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 12.2N 104.9W at 27/0900 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 105W and 109W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 06N to 15N between 103W and 110W. Seas are peaking near 12 ft, within 45 nm across the N semicircle. Frank is expected to continue on a W track during the next few days, while slowly intensifying, and is expected to reach hurricane intensity Fri night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W north of 03N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W, it then resumes W of T.S. Frank near 14.5N111W to 11N130W. The ITCZ continues from 11N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 86W and 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 132W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Frank. Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 9 ft are noted over the forecast waters off SW Mexico north of TS Frank. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except reaching moderate speeds off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with seas in the 2-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, T.S. Frank is expected to continue on a W track around 10 kt during the next few days, while slowly intensifying. The system will spread fresh to strong easterly winds and seas to around 8 ft across the outer offshore waters of southwest Mexico through Fri before shifting well offshore. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds across the waters off Baja California Norte will diminish Fri. Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail across northern and central portions of the Gulf of California today. Southerly swell from Frank is expected across the Baja offshore waters by Sat and will spread northward and raise seas to 8 ft and higher well offshore of Baja Sur. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, which is along about 10N. Gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region into the weekend, with slight to moderate seas in south to southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Frank. Outside of T.S. Frank, a broad ridge prevails across the waters west of 120W. Winds over the discussion waters are mainly moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft across the open Pacific. A low pressure center near 15.5N113.5W has lingered in that general area for the past few days. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization this evening. Some additional development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it drifts westward, and a tropical depression could form during this time. After that, interaction with Tropical Storm Frank to the east of this system is expected to prevent further development. Moderate easterly winds and seas 6-7 ft will prevail across the N semicircle of this low through Wed night. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W as Tropical Storm Frank intensifies while moving westward. $$ AL