000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262221 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2110 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 11.8N 103.5W at 2100 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 300 nm NE...60 nm SE...300 nm SW...and 330 nm NW quadrants. The strong winds and seas to 12 ft are occurring within 30 nm across the N semicircle. T.S. Frank is expected to continue on a W to WNW track around 10 kt during the next few days, while slowly intensifying, and is expected to reach hurricane intensity late Fri, then begin to veer toward the NW. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W north of 03N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W north of 03N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W north of 03N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N72W to 10N93W to 11N98W, then resumes W of T.S. Frank near 13N109W to low pres 1008 mb near 16N112W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 79W and 89W, and from 07N to 15.5N between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12.5N between 119W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on recently developed Tropical Storm Frank. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec W of 95W, and extend southwestward to offshore of Puerto Angel, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Strong E to SE winds then extend west and southwestward and merge into the N portions of Frank. Elsewhere, a broad ridge extends southeastward across the Baja California offshore waters. The resultant modest pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is producing light to gentle northerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft across the Baja waters north of Punta Eugenia, while light to gentle winds and seas 4-5 ft are elsewhere north of 19N. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are noted in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 4-5 ft range prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico. Active convection occurring earlier today across the Mexican coastal waters between Cabo Corrientes, Las Tres Marias and outward to 107W has diminished in intensity but persists across the area. For the forecast, T.S. Frank is expected to continue on a W to WNW track around 10 kt during the next few days, while slowly intensifying, and will spread fresh to strong easterly winds and seas to around 8 ft across the outer offshore waters of southwest Mexico tonight through Fri before shifting well offshore. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds across the northern Baja California Baja waters will diminish Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail across northern and central portions of the Gulf of California through Wed, then return again Thu afternoon into the weekend. Southerly swell from Frank is expected across the Baja offshore waters by Sat and will spread northward and raise seas to 8 ft and higher well offshore of Baja Sur. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate offshore winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, which is along about 10N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the period with slight to moderate seas dominated by south to southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Frank. A broad ridge prevails across the waters west of 120W. Winds over the discussion waters are mainly moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft across the open Pacific. A low pressure center near 16N122W has lingered in that general area for the past few days. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized near this low today. Additional development of this system is possible during the next day or so as the low meanders across this area and to the NW of Frank. Fresh easterly winds and seas 6-7 ft will prevail across the N semicircle of this low through Wed night. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days. Expect winds and seas to increase east of 125W as Tropical Storm Frank intensifies while moving west to northwestward. $$ Stripling