448 AXPZ20 KNHC 260230 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight or on Tuesday. The system is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well south of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days. The system has a high chance of formation within the next 2 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W north of 03N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W north of 03N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A 1008 mb low is along the wave axis near 11N100W. Nearby convection is described below. Please see special features section above for more on the potential development of this low. The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W north of 03N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 13N110W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N E of 89W, and from 06N to 15N between 96W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 122W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 15N, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Strong NE to E winds and seas to 10 ft are found father offshore, across the N semicircle of the broad low pressure centered near 11N100W. See the Special Features section above for more info. Elsewhere, a broad ridge extends southeastward across the Baja California offshore waters. The resultant modest pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is producing gentle NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft across the waters north of Punta Eugenia, while light to gentle winds and seas 4-5 ft are elsewhere north of 18N. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are noted in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 4-5 ft range prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and building seas associated with an area of low pressure near 11N100W will move westward across the outer offshore waters of southern and southwestern Mexico this week. There is a high potential for this low to develop into tropical cyclone within the next 2 days. Gentle to moderate NW winds across the northern Baja California Baja waters will diminish Fri. Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail across northern and central portions of the Gulf of California through Wed. NW swell with seas to 6 ft will continue offshore Baja California Norte through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh offshore winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh tonight, then weaken through Fri. Across the rest of the area, gentle to moderate winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on the potential for tropical cyclone development south of Mexico. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Estelle has opened into a trough, extending from 26N137W to 10N138W. The trough will continuing to move westward today and exit to the west of 140W tonight. Outside of the remnant trough of Estelle, a broad ridge prevails across the waters west of 120W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft across the open Pacific. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days. By the middle to end of the week, expect winds and seas to increase east of 120W in association with the potential tropical cyclone currently offshore of southern Mexico. $$ AL