000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252122 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico, currently near 11N99W this afternoon. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression in the next day or two. This low pressure area is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well south of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days. The system has a high chance of formation within the next 2 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 87W north of 03N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 99W north of 03N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A 1008 mb low is along the wave axis near 11N99W. Nearby convection is described below. Please see special features section above for more on the potential development of this low. A tropical wave is along near 112W/113W north of 03N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. A 1008 mb low is along the wave axis near 15N111W. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 08.5N89W to low pres 1008 mb near 11N99W to low pres 1011 mb near 15N111W to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends from 10N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09N E of 89W, and from 07N to 14N between 92W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 103W and 107W, and from 13.5N to 17N between 109W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm N and 180 nm S of trough and ITCZ between 118W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 14N, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Strong NE to E winds and seas to 10 ft are found father offshore, across the N semicircle of the broad low pressure centered near 11N99W. See the Special Features section above for more info. Elsewhere, a broad and weak ridge extends southeastward across the Baja California offshore waters. The modest pressure gradient there is producing gentle NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft across the waters north of Punta Eugenia, while light to gentle winds and seas 4-5 ft are seen elsewhere north of 18N. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are noted in the northern and central Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 4-5 ft range prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and building seas associated with the area of low pressure along 99W will move westward across the outer offshore waters of southern and southwestern Mexico this week. There is a high potential for this low to develop into tropical cyclone within the next 2 days. Gentle to moderate NW winds will continue across the northern Baja waters through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of California will diminish Tue. NW swell with seas to 6 ft will continue offshore Baja California Norte through tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate offshore winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, along about 09N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh through tonight. Across the rest of the area, gentle to moderate winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on the potential for tropical cyclone development south of Mexico. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Estelle remains across the western waters in the form of an open trough along 137W, from 22N to 28N this afternoon. Peak seas are currently near 6 ft with moderate to locally fresh winds NW of the low. The trough will continuing to move westward today and exit to the west of 140W tonight. Outside of the remnants of Estelle, a broad ridge prevails across the waters west of 120W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft across the open Pacific. For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected across the area for the next few days. By the middle to end of the week, expect winds and seas to increase east of 120W in association with the potential tropical cyclone currently offshore of southern Mexico. $$ Stripling