000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Shower activity continues to increase and show signs of 
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern 
Mexico, near 11N98W this morning. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for continued development, and this system is 
likely to become a tropical depression in the next day or two. 
This low pressure area is forecast to move generally westward at 
10 to 15 kt, remaining well south of the coast of southern and 
southwestern Mexico during the next several days. The system has 
a high chance of formation within the next 5 days. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 86.5W north of 03N, moving 
westward around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 98W north of 03N, moving 
westward around 10 to 15 kt. A 1009 mb low is along the wave 
axis. Nearby convection is described below. Please see special 
features section above for more on the potential for development 
of this low. 

A tropical wave has its axis near 112W/113W north of 03N, moving
westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 08.5N88W to low pres
1009 mb near 11N98W to 13N109W to 08N135W. The ITCZ extends from
08N135W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted from 03N to 08N E of 89W, from 06.5N to 10N between 90W
and 106W, and from 10N to 17N between 96.5W and 104W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 16.5N 
between 107.5W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 30 nm N and 120 nm S of trough and ITCZ between 116W and
137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail over and downwind of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Stronger winds and
seas to 10 ft are found father offshore, across the N semicircle
of the broad low pressure centered near 11N98W. See the Special
Features section above for more info. Elsewhere, a broad and weak
ridge extends southeastward across the Baja California offshore
waters. The modest pressure gradient there is producing gentle 
to moderate NW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft across the waters 
north of Punta Eugenia, while gently winds and seas 4-5 ft are
seen elsewhere north of 18N. Moderate southerly winds and seas 
of 3 to 4 ft are noted in the northern Gulf of California. Light
to gentle winds, and seas in the 4-5 ft range prevail elsewhere 
across the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and building seas associated 
with the area of low pressure will move westward across the 
waters south of southern and southwestern Mexico this week. There
is a high potential for this low to develop into tropical 
cyclone within the next 5 days. Gentle to moderate NW winds will 
diminish today. Gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of 
California will diminish today. NW swell with seas to 6 ft will 
continue offshore Baja California Norte through tonight. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over and downwind of the
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south
of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell 
across most of the area.

For the forecast, winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to
fresh through tonight. Across the rest of the area, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section for more information on the 
potential for tropical cyclone development south of Mexico.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Estelle has weakened
to a trough along 137W, from 20N to 25N this morning. Peak seas 
are currently near 6 ft with moderate to locally fresh winds NW 
of the low. The trough will continuing to move westward today and
exit to the west of 140W this evening.

Outside of the remnants of Estelle, winds are mainly moderate or
weaker. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft across the open Pacific.

For the forecast, mainly moderate or weaker winds are expected 
across the area for the next few days. By the middle to end of 
the week, expect winds and seas to increase east of 120W in 
association with the potential tropical cyclone. 

$$
Stripling